Three years ago, at just 22 years old, Munetaka Murakami reigned as a God in Nippon Professional Baseball.
The Tokyo Yakult Swallows third baseman crushed 56 home runs in 141 games, breaking the legendary Sadaharu Oh’s long-standing record for a Japanese-born player that had lasted 58 years. Overall, he batted a ridiculous .318/.458/.710 with 134 RBI and 10.5 WAR. That season, he secured his second straight Central League MVP award, led Yakult to another pennant, and became just the second NPB player of the 21st century to capture the batting Triple Crown.
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Many fans hoped Murakami would build on his historic season and cement his legacy as an all-time NPB great before his inevitable posting to Major League Baseball. Could he become the first hitter since Randy Bass to win back-to-back Triple Crowns? Could he add more steals and put together a 50-20 season? Or even one-up himself to break Wladimir Balentien’s NPB record of 60 home runs? But reality proved far different.
Murakami followed with 31 home runs in 2023 and 33 in 2024. His OPS+ marks of 152 and 149 would count as career years for most players, but fell well short of the 230 OPS+ he posted during his Herculean 2022 season. Moreover, his batting average slid from .318 in 2022 to .256 in 2023 and .244 in 2024, a byproduct of his strikeout rate spiking from 21% to 28% to 30% over that span.
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Of course, it was unrealistic to expect Murakami to sustain historic numbers year after year, but the real concern was his hit tool showing signs of complete collapse. From 2020 to 2022, Murakami posted a 79% in-zone contact rate and kept his whiff rate below 30% – slightly worse than league-average but fairly typical numbers for a modern slugger. However, from 2023 to 2024, his in-zone contact rate dropped to 74% and his whiff rate soared to 36% – both ranking last among qualified NPB hitters in that span. In short, he still flashed moments of brilliance with jaw-dropping moonshots and maintained excellent walk rates, but the consistency in hitting wasn’t quite there.
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With no apparent injuries to blame, the most likely explanation was that 2022 was an incredible outlier, while 2023 and 2024 better reflected his true talent level. But that just didn’t feel right. Fans still wanted to believe Murakami could battle adversity and tap back into his peak form in 2025, his final season in Japan before making the leap across the Pacific.
Unfortunately, 2025 got off to a rough start when Murakami suffered an oblique injury in spring training, forcing him to miss the first three weeks of the regular season. He returned on April 17, making his first career start in right field to accommodate new free-agent signing Eigoro Mogi at the hot corner. But in his final at-bat that night, the 25-year-old re-aggravated his oblique while swinging, sidelining him for the rest of the first half.
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After rehabbing through most of July, he returned to NPB on July 29, reclaimed third base, and homered in his first at-bat off Katsuki Azuma. Since then, he’s played every game for the last-place Swallows, racking up nine long balls and a .644 slugging percentage over just 23 games. Over a full 143-game NPB season, that projects to a 56-homer pace, and he currently ranks third in NPB with a 180 OPS+ among hitters with at least 95 plate appearances. Could it be that Murakami is back to his 2022 form?
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Yes and no. His strikeout rate has climbed further to 34%, while his in-zone contact and whiff rates remain nearly identical to his less-than-stellar 2023 and 2024 levels. That said, his spectacular .368 isolated power and 48% hard-hit rate are easily his best marks since 2022.
But the biggest evolution in Murakami’s game in the small sample this year is his aggression at the plate. From his 2019 rookie season to 2024, the superstar posted remarkably consistent plate discipline indicators, with his swing rate always between 41-43% and his chase rate between 24-26%. So far this year, he has a career-high 50% swing rate and 34% chase rate.
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His newfound aggression has cut his walk rate from 17% to 8%, but one could argue he was too passive in recent years, often laying off borderline pitches he could have driven with his plus power to all fields. It’s possible that Murakami has become less patient only in the short term to make up for lost time and quickly rack up counting stats. At the same time, it reflects a renewed confidence, bravado, and belief in his ability to hit for power as he also has the highest fly ball (63%) and pull rates (45%) of his career.
Defensively, Murakami, who was drafted as a catcher, has been worth -48 Defensive Runs Saved at third over the past three seasons and projects as a first baseman or designated hitter in MLB, which puts more pressure on his bat. On the flip side, he runs pretty well for his size, with 56 steals in 88 career attempts, generally grades as a plus base runner, and has stayed healthy aside from this season’s oblique injury.
When stacked against other NPB stars who made the move stateside, Murakami’s career .946 OPS and 163 wRC+ sit right alongside Hideki Matsui (164) and Seiya Suzuki (169). He trails Masataka Yoshida (176) by a wider margin but ranks ahead of guys like Yoshitomo Tsutsugo (149) and Shohei Ohtani (141). Of course, most of these players don’t make great comps for Murakami, as he has the most extreme three-true-outcomes profile of them all. (Or in the case of Ohtani, he became a substantially better hitter after going to MLB).
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Looking at MLB comparisons, a 90th-percentile outcome for Murakami might resemble very successful sluggers like Max Muncy, Kyle Schwarber, Matt Olson, or Rafael Devers, whereas a bust scenario could look more like Pedro Alvarez, Jack Suwinski, (late career) Joey Gallo, or the aforementioned Yoshitomo Tsutsugo. Of course, his future will also hinge on the organization and home ballpark he lands in, as well as his ability to handle the pressure under lofty expectations.
Photo: Munetaka Murakami (55) runs the bases after hitting a home run during the second inning of a World Baseball Classic game against U.S., Tuesday, March 21, 2023, in Miami. (AP Photo/Marta Lavandier)
