TOKYO, Japan – With under four weeks remaining in the 2024 Nippon Professional Baseball (NPB) regular season, the race for the postseason is tighter than ever. The top three teams in the Pacific and Central League will qualify for the playoffs, which are set to begin on October 12, with the two seeds hosting the three seeds in a best-of-three series. The pennant winner receives a first-round bye and an automatic 1-0 advantage in the best-of-seven championship series. All games will take place in the higher seed’s stadium. Needless to say, the regular season holds a lot of importance, with the lower seeds needing to convincingly defeat the top team to advance to the Japan Series.
As of September 11, the CL is still completely wide open. Except for the Chunichi Dragons and Yakult Swallows, any of the four other teams are still in a position to win the pennant or miss the playoffs entirely.
The DeNA BayStars are the biggest longshots, as they’re 5.5 games behind first place and 3.0 games out of a playoff spot. But they’re 7-2 in their last nine games and have momentum going into the final stretch of the season. The team carries a league-best 110 wRC+, led by a slew of star hitters in Tyler Austin, Toshiro Miyazaki, and Shugo Maki. Austin’s relative health has been an X factor this season, as he boasts a colossal 215 wRC+ with 22 home runs in 86 games. The starting rotation, which was expected to be a weakness due to the loss of Shota Imanaga and Trevor Bauer, has held its own mostly, not least because of the contributions of ace Katsuki Azuma and new imports Anthony Kay and Andre Jackson.
The defending Japan Series champion Hanshin Tigers are also getting hot at the right time. The team is built heavily on its pitching, with reigning MVP Shoki Murakami and Sawamura Award contender Hiroto Saiki as a powerful one-two punch. The return of southpaw Haruto Takahashi has provided the staff with an even bigger boost in the rotation. Their bullpen’s 2.57 FIP leads NPB. The offense isn’t nearly as reliable, but sluggers Teruaki Sato, Yusuke Ohyama, and Shota Morishita are finding their form after slow starts alongside the consistent presence of Koji Chikamoto in the leadoff spot.
The Hiroshima Carp have punched well above their weight all season long. Their team ERA+ of 125 leads NPB despite a below-average strikeout rate. They’re dead last in NPB with only 49 home runs. Still, they manufacture just enough runs to win thanks to exceptional defense and a shutdown bullpen featuring Ryoji Kuribayashi, Sotaro Shimauchi, Atsuya Horie, and Taylor Hearn.
On paper, the Yomiuri Giants have been among the pennant favorites all season long, but it hasn’t been smooth sailing. Star hitters Kazuma Okamoto and Yoshihiro Maru have provided consistent production, with Naoki Yoshikawa and Takumi Ohshiro as solid supplementary pieces. They received a spark plug at the end of May with the acquisition of outfielder Elier Hernandez, but he recently went down with a wrist injury. Luckily, another midseason signing, Coco Montes, has stepped in and posted a .876 OPS in his place so far. The lineup is deep and has explosive potential, but they haven’t been much better than the league average. The pitching, on the other hand, has stepped up. Ace Shosei Togo, veteran Tomoyuki Sugano, and southpaw Foster Griffin are as good as any front three in the nation, and dominant closer Taisei provides much-needed stability in the 9th inning.
Outlook: The Giants and Carp have been battling for first place all year long, but the Tigers have re-emerged as legitimate contenders, with the surging BayStars close behind. Yomiuri is the frontrunner, but with many head-to-head matchups remaining, one series sweep could change the entire direction of the season.
The SoftBank Hawks have had the Pacific League on lock since June. They’ve started showing signs of fatigue recently but can still cruise to the finish line with their loaded offense. They have a winning record against every team this season and will undoubtedly have a massive target on their backs in the postseason.
The Nippon-Ham Fighters have the best record since the all-star break and have all but guaranteed themselves their first playoff berth since 2018, thanks to the emergence of a spirited young core. Kotaro Kiyomiya and Franmil Reyes, who struggled in the first half, have been among the league’s top sluggers in the second half. It’s a dream scenario for a team that manager Tsuyoshi Shinjo has gradually rebuilt for the past three years.
The primary race to watch is between the third-place Lotte Marines and fourth-place Rakuten Eagles. Currently, Rakuten is 3.5 games behind. The Eagles shockingly won interleague play in June and have continued to be competitive since. Their pitching is hanging on by a thread with very little depth apart from breakout ace Takahisa Hayakawa, leading qualified NPB starters with a 19.5 K-BB%. Still, their 76 ERA+ is the worst in NPB, so it’s up to the lineup to push them over the edge.
Meanwhile, the Marines have been incredibly streaky all year. Superstar Roki Sasaki returned to the rotation in August, but their number two, Atsuki Taneichi, recently got hurt. The lineup primarily relies on the power of foreigners Neftali Soto and Gregory Polanco, though all-star Hiromi Oka has finally returned from injury. Barring a total collapse, they’ll still make the postseason, but Lotte isn’t in the driver’s seat without the one-two punch of Sasaki and Taneichi being at their best. Moreover, they don’t match up well against the Fighters so that the odds will be stacked against them in the opening playoff series.
The three-time defending pennant-winning Orix Buffaloes are on life support, 6.5 games out of a playoff spot. Their pitching is still elite, but it’ll take a miracle for them to turn their season around.
Outlook: Rakuten and Lotte duked it out until the final day of the season in 2023, and depending on how the sides fare in their five remaining head-to-head games, the same thing could happen in 2024. The rest of the PL should play out straightforwardly, as the Hawks can clinch the league by next week.
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WBN NPB: https://worldbaseball.com/league/japan/
Photo Credit: Shosei Togo of the Yomiuri Giants celebrates winning against Yokohama DeNA Baystars at Tokyo Dome on May 24, 2023 in Tokyo, Japan. (Photo by Sports Nippon/Getty Images)
