After winning Rookie of the Year in 2024, Paul Skenes has followed it up with an even more dominant 2025—one that ranks among the greatest second-year pitching seasons in the live-ball era.
Through 96 innings, Skenes owns a 1.78 ERA with 97 strikeouts. His ERA+—which adjusts for park factors and league context—is an eye-popping 233. To put that in perspective, only four pitchers age 23 or younger in MLB history have ever posted an ERA+ of 233 or better. The last to do it? Slim Jones, all the way back in 1934.
Skenes is also allowing just 5.6 hits per nine innings—a mark that has been achieved by an MLB starter with at least 100 innings only seven times since 1948. None of those pitchers were 23 or younger.
To truly appreciate what Skenes is doing, it’s worth comparing his season to the gold standard: Dwight Gooden’s legendary 1985 campaign, widely regarded as the greatest second-year performance by a pitcher in MLB history. Gooden threw 276 2/3 innings with a 1.53 ERA, 268 strikeouts, an 8.9 fWAR, a 0.97 WHIP, and a 229 ERA+.
Skenes likely won’t match Gooden’s innings total—he’s on pace for 204 2/3—but his other numbers are remarkably close or even superior: a 1.78 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, 2.48 FIP, and 233 ERA+, with a projected 7.8 fWAR. In fact, his projected fWAR would be the second-highest by a pitcher since 2016.
How is he doing it?
Skenes ranks among MLB’s elite in limiting quality contact. His barrel rate (via Baseball Savant) is just 5.3%, third-best in MLB. His launch angle sweet spot percentage—balls hit with an ideal launch angle of 8–32 degrees—sits at 27.5%, sixth-best in the league. His expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) is tied for first with Tarik Skubal at .252, and his expected batting average against is second overall at .200. No matter the metric, Skenes is simply dominating.
If this pace continues, Skenes is not only a front-runner for the 2025 NL Cy Young Award—he’s carving out one of the best pitching seasons of the last 15 years.
And the story doesn’t end there. After the 2025 season, Skenes is set to represent Team USA in the 2026 World Baseball Classic. As the ace of the national team, he’ll be one of the most prominent pitchers ever to take the mound for the U.S. on the international stage. Following up a potential Cy Young with anchoring Team USA could cement his status as one of baseball’s premier superstars.
