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Samurai Japan Enter Premier12 as Favorites

 Yuri Karasawa  |    Nov 8th, 2024 2:00pm EST

TOKYO, Japan – As reigning champions of the Premier12, Olympics, and World Baseball Classic, Samurai Japan consistently enters international baseball tournaments as one of the favorites. Expectations are very high again as they approach the 2024 edition of the Premier12.

Japan will compete in Group B, facing Korea, Australia, Cuba, the Dominican Republic, and co-hosts Chinese Taipei across five round-robin games. The Samurai will open the tournament at home in Nagoya before making a detour to Taipei to play the rest of their group-stage contests. The top two teams from the pool will advance to the Super Round in Tokyo, where they’ll meet the best teams from Group A, which includes the United States, Mexico, Venezuela, Puerto Rico, and the Netherlands.

Though offensive heavyweights like Munetaka Murakami, Kazuma Okamoto, and Kensuke Kondoh are out with injury, and top pitchers Roki Sasaki and Hiroya Miyagi are missing, Japan still boasts the most talented roster in the tournament on paper. The 2019 team included future MLB stars like Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Shota Imanaga, and Seiya Suzuki. There are likely future MLB players on the 2024 team, too.

Shogo Sakakura, selected as an over-age player for Japan at the U-23 Pro Asia Baseball Championship last year, is expected to take on the primary catching duties. The 26-year-old has been a key player for the Hiroshima Carp since 2021, with a career .773 OPS and reliable defense. Lotte Marines all-star Toshiya Satoh, coming off a breakout season with 2.8 WAR over 116 games, may also see time at backstop or first base.

With national team mainstays Okamoto and Murakami absent from the infield, DeNA BayStars’ second baseman Shugo Maki will serve as a key anchor in the lineup. The 26-year-old clubhouse leader has averaged 25 home runs per year with a 150 wRC+ in his first four NPB seasons.

Former top prospect Kotaro Kiyomiya, who posted a .972 OPS in the second half of the season, will be expected to step up in Okamoto’s absence. Veteran defensive specialist Sosuke Genda brings stability at shortstop, while elite third baseman Ryoya Kurihara, fresh off a 6.5 WAR season with the SoftBank Hawks, will also play an important role.

Chusei Mannami unfortunately withdrew from the tournament, but the outfield remains strong with Japan Series MVP Masayuki Kuwahara, Rakuten Eagles power-speed threat Ryosuke Tatsumi, and young Hanshin Tigers star Shota Morishita.

Despite missing Sasaki and Miyagi, the Samurai’s pitching is still its clear strength, led by NPB ERA leader Hiroto Takahashi — argurably the best pitcher in the entire Premier12 — along with other top-caliber starters such as Shosei Togo, Hiroto Saiki, Takahisa Hayakawa, and Koki Kitayama. The bullpen is headlined by Yomiuri Giants side-arm flamethrower Taisei and Lotte Marines’ southpaw Shota Suzuki, who posted a sub-one ERA this season.

Manager Hirokazu Ibata couldn’t assemble the full roster he envisioned, and many fans view this as Japan’s “B team.” Still, the players are more than talented enough to compete for Gold and even go undefeated. However, Group B competition will be fierce, with no easy matchups to take for granted. Japan will need to stay sharp against all its opponents with a strong tournament start and take momentum into the Super Round.

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Yuri Karasawa