The 45-day posting window for Japanese left-handed starting pitcher Shinnosuke Ogasawara ends tomorrow, January 24. The Chunichi Dragons of Nippon Professional Baseball posted the 27-year-old for Major League Baseball organizations on December 10.
Ogasawara’s free-agent market has been quiet throughout the MLB offseason. The nine-year NPB veteran has not received as much attention in the media as the other NPB pitchers posted in December, like Roki Sasaki or Tomoyuki Sugano. Consequently, it is challenging to predict if Ogasawara will reach an agreement with an MLB club by tomorrow and what a potential contract could look like for him.
It is not out of the question that an MLB team takes a flier on Ogasawara in the same way the Philadelphia Phillies did with former Hanshin Tigers starting pitcher Koyo Aoyagi, who signed a minor league contract with the Phillies last week with an invite to Spring Training.
So what does Ogasawara bring to the table, and how will no MLB contract affect his future?
Ogasawara’s fastball averages 89-90 mph, about four mph below the MLB league average in 2024. Brandon Tew of Sports Info Solutions projects Ogasawara as a swingman or spot-starter in MLB since his strikeout percentage dropped from 20 percent in 2023 to 14 percent in 2024. Ogasawara’s secondary pitches include a knuckle curve, changeup, and slider.
Limiting hits was challenging for Ogasawara with the Dragons last season, as he gave up 9.4 per nine innings in 144.1 frames—however, he rarely surrendered a walk. Ogasawara allowed 151 hits but walked only 1.4 batters per nine innings, which resulted in just 22 walks in 24 appearances. Maintaining well-above-average command in MLB could be crucial for a pitcher like Ogasawara, who does not throw exceptionally hard.
If Ogasawara, represented by William Morris Endeavor, cannot reach a contract agreement with an MLB organization by tomorrow’s deadline, he will return to the Dragons for the 2025 NPB season. If he so chooses, the first-time NPB All-Star in 2023 could try his luck for another MLB opportunity next offseason.
There is no age deadline for NPB pitchers to transition to MLB. Right-hander Tomoyuki Sugano, who signed a one-year, $13 million contract with the Baltimore Orioles in mid-December, will be 35 on Opening Day in 2025. Like Ogasawara, Sugano does not throw hard but possesses excellent strike zone command.
The Yomiuri Giants posted Sugano, the 2024 Central League MVP, during the 2020-21 offseason. However, Sugano did not reach an agreement with an MLB team and returned to the Giants. Perhaps Sugano’s situation from a few years ago can show Ogasawara that his MLB aspirations do not have to end if he is left unsigned.
In 161 NPB games, Ogasawara is 46-65 with a 3.62 ERA and 7.2 strikeouts per nine innings. He helped Japan finish second behind the United States in the 2015 U-18 Baseball World Cup, throwing six scoreless innings in a 10-1 first-round win against Australia.
