The 2023 Draft order is taking shape

October 24th, 2022

The order for the first 18 picks in the 2023 MLB Draft won’t be determined until the first-ever Draft lottery, which is expected to take place during the Winter Meetings in San Diego in December. But most of the rest of the first round has fallen into place.

Teams picked in reverse order of winning percentage for the first 58 Drafts, alternating by league from 1965-2004. As part of the new collective bargaining agreement this year, all 18 non-playoff teams will enter a lottery for the top six selections, and the order of all postseason clubs (picks 19 through 30) will be determined by when they get eliminated and their revenue-sharing status.

Postseason teams will choose in this order: Wild Card Series losers, Division Series losers, Championship Series losers, World Series loser, World Series winner. Within each of those groups, clubs will be sorted by revenue-sharing status: teams that are non-disqualified recipients, teams that pay a competitive-balance tax and teams that neither receive payouts nor pay a competitive-balance tax.

The Wild Card Series losers will select 19 through 22, in this order: Rays (recipient, 86-76), Blue Jays (neither, 92-70), Cardinals (neither, 93-69), Mets (CBT payor, 101-61). Then come the Division Series losers at picks 23 through 26, in this order: Mariners (recipient, 90-72), Guardians (recipient, 92-70), Braves (recipient, 101-61), Dodgers (CBT payor, 111-51). The losers of the League Championship Series — the Padres and Yankees — are both CBT payors, so San Diego (89-73) will pick 27th, followed by New York (99-63).

Note that both the Mets and Dodgers are projected to exceed the initial competitive-balance tax threshold of $230 million by more than $40 million, which will trigger their respective top selections in the 2023 Draft being dropped 10 spots in the order.

Below, we’ve laid out how the first round shapes up as of now. Note that after the first round, the lottery results won’t affect picks 1-18, which will be in reverse order of winning percentage.

Draft lottery odds for No. 1 overall pick

1. Nationals (55-107), 16.5%
2. Athletics (60-102), 16.5%
3. Pirates (62-100), 16.5%
4. Reds (62-100), 13.25%
5. Royals (65-97), 10.00%
6. Tigers (66-96), 7.50%
7. Rangers (68-94), 5.50%
8. Rockies (68-94), 3.90%
9. Marlins (69-93), 2.70%
10. Angels (73-89), 1.80%
11. D-backs (74-88), 1.40%
12. Cubs (74-88), 1.10%
13. Twins (78-84), 0.90%
14. Red Sox (78-84), 0.76%
15. White Sox (81-81), 0.62%
16. Giants (81-81), 0.48%
17. Orioles (83-79), 0.36%
18. Brewers (86-76), 0.23%

Picks 19-30

19. Rays (Wild Card loser, recipient, 86-76)
20. Blue Jays (Wild Card loser, neither, 92-70)
21. Cardinals (Wild Card loser, neither, 93-69)
22. *Mets (Wild Card loser, CBT payor, 101-61)
23. Mariners (LDS loser, recipient, 90-72)
24. Guardians (LDS loser, recipient, 92-70)
25. Braves (LDS loser, recipient, 101-61)
26. *Dodgers (LDS loser, CBT payor, 111-51)
27. Padres (LCS loser, CBT payor, 89-73)
28. Yankees (LCS loser, CBT payor, 99-63)
29. World Series loser
30. World Series winner

*Pick will drop 10 spots if Mets and Dodgers exceed the initial competitive-balance tax threshold of $230 million by more than $40 million as projected.