TOKYO, Japan—Hideo Nomo’s shocking move to the Los Angeles Dodgers in 1995 started a chain reaction, and Japanese stars have been a hot commodity for Major League Baseball teams ever since. Last offseason, the Dodgers spent over $1 billion on Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto alone. Yamamoto hadn’t even thrown an inning in MLB. The days of Nippon Professional Baseball players being viewed as total unknowns and wildcards are in the past. American executives and scouts understand that Japan is a gold mine for MLB-ready talent.
But NPB superstars aren’t free for the taking. Players must first receive consent from their NPB team to negotiate with MLB clubs via the posting system. If the team doesn’t agree to post them, a player must wait nine service years to reach international free-agent eligibility under the current rules. For instance, Kodai Senga had MLB aspirations as early as 2017 (when he was named to the all-world team at the WBC) but could not join the New York Mets until 2023 due to the SoftBank Hawks’ no-posting policy.
That said, which NPB players are candidates to jump across the Pacific sooner rather than later? Of course, everybody has their eyes on 22-year-old phenom . Still, his status remains in the air as players under 25 are subject to international bonus pool restrictions, and the Lotte Marines must first agree to post him.
This article will introduce seven other starting pitchers who may be on MLB teams in the coming years. Next week, we’ll examine relievers and hitters.
RHP Kaima Taira, Seibu Lions (Current Age: 24)
Taira has been interested in MLB since former teammate Yusei Kikuchi signed with the Seattle Mariners in 2019. He’s one of the most cerebral players in Japan, focusing on weight training in the offseason and embracing his short height to take advantage of a good vertical approach angle. He has experience in many roles, sitting 95-98 mph as a reliever and 93-96 mph as a starter. He recently returned from a forearm injury that kept him out for three months, successfully reintegrating into the Lions bullpen. He has a plethora of offspeed weapons, including a sweeper, slider, cutter, splitter, sinker, and curveball. He has a 1.95 ERA and 2.86 FIP with a 26.3 K% and 9.7 BB% in six NPB seasons. Taira has the right mentality and stuff to compete at the MLB level.
RHP Tatsuya Imai, Seibu Lions (Current Age: 26)
Imai is another MLB hopeful with a pitch mix reminiscent of Jacob deGrom and ratios like Blake Snell. Since debuting in 2018, Imai has never had a walk rate below 10% but has steadily raised his strikeout rate each year with gaudy stuff. He’s mostly a two-pitch guy, relying on a mid-to-high 90s fastball and a hard slider almost 90% of the time this season. He leads NPB by a wide margin with a 30.8 Whiff% (yes, even better than Roki) and has the makeup of a mid-rotation MLB starter.
RHP Kona Takahashi, Seibu Lions (Current Age: 27)
Yep, it’s another Seibu Lion. Takahashi had his posting request denied by the team last year and hasn’t had a great 2024 season (69 ERA+), so whether or not Seibu will ever be open to letting him go is anyone’s guess. But from 2022 to 2023, Takahashi was one of the top workhorses in NPB, pitching to a 2.20 ERA across 330.2 frames. His strikeout and whiff rates have never jumped off the page, but he consistently induces ground balls and gets great results with his slider and splitter. He also increased his velocity by a few ticks after a Driveline visit a few winters ago. He’s ripe for improvement in the right environment.
RHP Hiroto Takahashi, Chunichi Dragons (Current Age: 22)
As a 19-year-old rookie in 2022, Takahashi managed a fantastic 29 K%. In 2023, his strikeout rate dipped, but he raised his ground ball rate to 58.9%, ranking second in NPB only behind Roki Sasaki. He also made waves globally when he struck out Mike Trout and Paul Goldschmidt in the WBC Finals. But 2024 has been a true breakthrough, combining the best elements from his 2022 and 2023 campaigns with a mind-boggling 0.96 ERA in 16 starts with a 24.8 K% and 60.6 GB%. He’s averaging 95 mph on his heater, and his splitter has an excellent swinging strike rate of 20%. Takahashi has trained with Yoshinobu Yamamoto in the offseason and will likely follow in his footsteps to MLB when he turns 25.
RHP Shunpeita Yamashita, Orix Buffaloes (Current Age: 22)
Coming into 2024, Yamashita seemed poised to establish himself as one of the top starters in Japan. The youngster was named Pacific League Rookie of the Year in 2023 with a 1.61 ERA, 2.24 FIP, and 26.4 K% in 16 starts. But he missed the final month of the season and the playoffs with a back injury, which has seemingly carried over into 2024. He’s having a disastrous season with a 5.59 ERA and 16.7 BB% in nine games. Still, Yamashita’s stuff is almost unprecedented for a Japanese pitcher, sitting 96-98 mph on his four-seamer. In terms of raw velocity, he should be viewed as a Shohei Ohtani or Shintaro Fujinami caliber talent. With a curveball and splitter as lethal swing-and-miss weapons, the sky’s the limit for Yamashita if he can rediscover his feel for the strike zone.
LHP Hiroya Miyagi, Orix Buffaloes (Current Age: 23)
Miyagi burst onto the NPB scene in 2020 at 19, displaying remarkable pitchability well beyond his years. In his first full season in 2021, he won Pacific League Rookie of the Year with a 2.51 ERA in 147 IP. He’s continued to elevate his game ever since, increasing his fastball velocity and further developing his world-class offspeed pitches, including a curveball, slider, and splitter. This season, he has a 2.34 ERA and 2.44 FIP with a 20.8 K-BB%, leading NPB for pitchers with at least 90 innings. He has stated he is not interested in going to MLB because he doesn’t believe he’s good enough yet, but things could change.
LHP Takahisa Hayakawa, Rakuten Eagles (Current Age: 26)
Until 2024, Hayakawa was trending towards bust territory. Despite being the top prospect of the 2020 NPB, his career ERA was over 3.60, and he had a major home run problem. But last offseason, he had a great showing for Japan at the U-24 Asia Professional Baseball Championship and joined the Perth Heat to play winter ball. He blew the ABL competition away, striking out 15.3 batters per 9 innings, and has taken that momentum right into the 2024 NPB season. So far, he has a 2.26 ERA and 2.20 FIP with a 24.6 K% in 139.1 frames. His four-seam is only in the low 90s, but it has good shape, and he throws a changeup and splitter as his best putaway pitches. A southpaw with a high strikeout rate and flyball tendencies who played in Australia… sounds a lot like Shota Imanaga!
LHP Shinnosuke Ogasawara, Chunichi Dragons (Current Age: 26)
Despite only being 26 years old, Ogasawara has pitched professionally for almost a decade, and Jon Morosi has reported that he could be posted this offseason. He stood out as a top prospect in high school, contributing to his team’s 2015 Summer Koshien tournament championship. Since joining the Dragons, he’s had some ups and downs but has been generally solid with a career 3.57 ERA and 4.00 FIP. 2022 was his best season by far, as he posted a 2.76 ERA and 2.82 FIP while striking out 24% of batters, placing him third in NPB among qualifiers, only behind Kodai Senga and Yoshinobu Yamamoto. This year, his strikeout rate is down to a pedestrian 14.4%, but he also has the best walk rate of his career at just 3.5%. It’ll be an uphill battle for the southpaw, but a lower-budget MLB team might give him an offer.
Photo Credit: Hiroto Takahashi #28 of Team Japan pitches in the fifth inning against Team USA during the World Baseball Classic Championship at loanDepot park on March 21, 2023 in Miami, Florida. (Photo by Eric Espada/Getty Images)
