TOKYO, Japan – With just over a month and a half remaining in the 2024 Nippon Professional Baseball (NPB) season, it’s time to look at the top contenders for the Pacific and Central League Rookie of the Year Awards. Last season, Orix Buffaloes flamethrower Shunpeita Yamashita took home the PL ROY, while Hanshin Tigers ace Shoki Murakami came out of nowhere to seize the CL ROY and MVP. At this same time last year, the top rookies were already fairly obvious, but the same can’t be said about 2024.
PACIFIC LEAGUE
Contenders: LHP Natsuki Takeuchi (Seibu), RHP Shoma Kanemura (Nippon-Ham)
The Pacific League is a two-horse race between 23-year-olds Natsuki Takeuchi and Shoma Kanemura, with Takeuchi a few steps ahead.
Takeuchi flew up draft boards last year with a dominant fall semester at Kokugakuin University, pitching to a 0.97 ERA with 42 strikeouts in 55.2 frames. He also struck out eight batters in 6.1 innings against Team USA in the Collegiate All-Star Series, though he allowed home runs to 2024 first-round draft picks J.J. Wetherholt and Kaelen Culpepper. Ultimately, Takeuchi was the most contested arm of the 2023 NPB Draft, with the Seibu Lions winning the lottery for his negotiation rights. He’s been one of the lone bright spots for a historically bad Lions team and currently has a 1.93 ERA and 2.72 FIP with 70 strikeouts in 98 innings. The southpaw sits 90-92 mph on his fastball and throws a changeup and curveball as his best-offspeed options.
Kanemura was a second-round pick in 2022 and looked excellent through four starts in 2023 before a shoulder injury kept him out for most of the year. Entering 2024, he was determined to earn a spot in the rotation again, but the Fighters decided to utilize him as a setup man to solidify their late innings. However, after allowing just one run in ten appearances, Kanemura was stretched out as a starter again and has had plenty of success. He has a 2.26 and 3.40 FIP across 103.1 innings with 68 strikeouts. He averages 91-93 mph on his fastball with a deep seven-pitch mix to keep hitters on their toes. His splitter, which accounts for half of his total strikeouts, is his best weapon.
Takeuchi was running away with the ROY early on, but Kanemura quickly put himself in the conversation after a seamless move into the rotation. They have thrown a nearly identical number of innings with a comparable ERA, WHIP, and K%, so voters will closely monitor every remaining start. NPB awards are often determined by traditional counting stats, so Takeuchi’s 7-3 record gives him a slight edge over Kanemura at 5-5. That said, Kanemura could receive a boost thanks to his six holds, as some voters may value his role adaptability on a contending team.
| Player | Record | IP | ERA | FIP | xFIP | WHIP | K% | BB% | HR% |
| Natsuki Takeuchi | 7-3 | 98.0 | 1.93 | 2.72 | 2.99 | 0.93 | 18.6 | 3.4 | 1.1 |
| Shoma
Kanemura |
5-5
6 HLD |
103.1 | 2.26 | 3.40 | 3.20 | 0.98 | 16.9 | 4.5 | 2.0 |
Prediction: Takeuchi would win the ROY if the season ended today, as he’s just a little bit better across the board. But things could get very interesting if he struggles down the stretch and Kanemura starts picking up more wins.
CENTRAL LEAGUE
Contenders: RHP Yutaro Ishida (DeNA), LHP Takumi Kurohara (Hiroshima), RHP Hiromasa Funabasama (Yomiuri), RHP Yuhi Nishidate (Yomiuri), 2B Mikiya Tanaka (Chunichi), OF Ryuki Watarai (DeNA)
The Central League remains completely wide open, as nobody has distanced themself from the rest of the pack.
Tiny Mikiya Tanaka, listed at just 5-foot-5, has put together an incredible defensive highlight package with six defensive runs saved at second base, according to SIS Baseball. He’s also a good base runner with strong baseball instincts. Unfortunately, his hitting is very underwhelming, with a .216/.265/.271 slash line (65 wRC+). He can kiss his ROY dreams goodbye if he falls below the Mendoza line. But a batting average above .240 and an OPS above .600 would help strengthen his case significantly as he’s an everyday player for the Dragons.
The top-hitting prospect of last year’s NPB draft, Ryuki Watarai, started his rookie campaign on a tear by winning the preseason batting title and homering in his first two games of the regular season. Things quickly spiraled downhill, though, and he’s only hit one more home run on the year. He was briefly sent down to the farm and overpowered the competition, hitting .324 with 184 wRC+ before getting called back up. Since then, he’s had some ups and downs but is hitting .258/.310/.331 overall, which is close to the league average. However, he’s had defensive blunders in right field and was recently demoted again. Watarai still has a path to the ROY if he gets hot again and has clutch moments for the BayStars down the stretch, but it’s an uphill battle.
| Player | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | K% | BB% | wRC+ | DRS |
| Mikiya
Tanaka |
295 | .216 | .265 | .271 | .536 | 12.5 | 6.1 | 65 | 6 |
| Ryuki
Watarai |
269 | .258 | .310 | .331 | .640 | 15.2 | 4.5 | 97 | 0 |
Watarai’s teammate, Yutaro Ishida, dominated the minors with a 2.20 ERA and 3.08 FIP with a 23.8 K% before getting the call in early June. So far in NPB, he’s made seven starts, including a complete game shutout, with a 2.41 ERA and 2.85 FIP, becoming a vital rotation member. As his workload increases, he could earn ROY votes.
Takumi Kurohara and Hiromasa Funabasama have had great years out of the bullpen for their respective teams, and NPB award voters are more than willing to consider relievers. Kurohara, a former first-round pick, started out in the rotation before becoming a strikeout machine as a reliever. He has impressive raw numbers with a 1.70 ERA and 2.38 FIP in 33 appearances, though he hasn’t been trusted in as many high-leverage situations for the Carp. Funabasama pitched in 36 games in 2023 but is still eligible for the ROY. He’s managed a 1.80 ERA and 3.20 FIP with 17 holds for the Giants this year.
His teammate, Yuhi Nishidate, was the clear ROY favorite coming into the year. He’s picked up 19 holds and one save in 26 appearances but was sent down to the farm in late June to get stretched out as a starter. He doesn’t have much of a sample size at the moment, but if he returns to the top team and makes a big impact out of the rotation, his odds of winning should somewhat increase.
| Player | Record | IP | ERA | FIP | xFIP | WHIP | K% | BB% | HR% |
| Yutaro Ishida | 4-0 | 41.0 | 2.41 | 2.85 | 2.96 | 1.07 | 15.9 | 4.3 | 1.2 |
| Takumi Kurohara | 4-2 2 HLD |
37.0 | 1.70 | 2.38 | 2.34 | 0.95 | 30.6 | 8.2 | 1.4 |
| Hiromasa Funabasama | 4-1 17 HLD |
30.0 | 1.80 | 3.20 | 3.18 | 0.90 | 17.2 | 5.2 | 1.7 |
| Yuhi
Nishidate |
1-2
19 HLD |
22.2 | 3.57 | 3.99 | 3.58 | 1.15 | 19.6 | 12.0 | 2.2 |
Prediction: It’s difficult to bet on anyone right now, but Mikiya Tanaka and Yutaro Ishida probably have the easiest track to take home the award based on current playing time and opportunity.
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WBN NPB: https://worldbaseball.com/league/japan/
Photo Credit: Yakyu Cosmopolitan on X
