TOKYO, Japan – The Eiji Sawamura Award, the NPB equivalent of the Cy Young Award, is given to the top pitcher in Japan annually. Many voters still maintain a traditional outlook on pitching statistics, and old-fashioned criteria like 15 wins, ten complete games, and 200 innings are technically the standard. Of course, almost nobody is doing that in the modern game, so voters have eased their expectations a bit, and sabermetrics are slowly creeping in, but there are still years where no winner is declared. In 2019, despite great performances from starters like Kodai Senga, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Shun Yamaguchi, and Kohei Arihara, the committee decided not to award the Sawamura to anyone. Yu Darvish also questioned the integrity of the vote after a selection committee member admitted to him, “I didn’t vote for you this year simply because you are capable of winning it many more times in the future.”
2024 will mark the first year since 2020 that a pitcher not named Yoshinobu Yamamoto will take home the award. So, who will be crowned in what has been one of the lowest-scoring seasons in NPB history? Naturally, Chunichi Dragons ace Hiroto Takahashi should be viewed as the frontrunner, as he has an astonishing 0.96 ERA with a 10-2 record. But it might not be so straightforward. Hiroto Saiki (Hanshin Tigers), Livan Moinelo (SoftBank Hawks), Katsuki Azuma (DeNA BayStars), Shosei Togo, Tomoyuki Sugano (Yomiuri Giants), and Takahisa Hayakawa (Rakuten Eagles) are all in the running as they’ve each made at least two more starts than Takahashi.
Takahashi spent the first month of the season on the farm for an extended spring training of sorts. The 22-year-old trained with Yoshinobu Yamamoto over the offseason and attempted to overhaul his mechanics to mimic the Dodgers right-hander but ultimately reverted to his old ways. As a result, he’s pitched fewer innings than other top contenders. Saiki has a particularly robust case as he’s tied for the NPB lead in shutouts with three while being in the top five in wins, ERA, and strikeouts. Likewise, Togo has matched Saiki in complete games and shutouts but also has the distinction of throwing a no-hitter this season.
| Player | Record | IP | ERA | FIP | xFIP | WHIP | K% | BB% | HR% |
| Hiroto
Takahashi |
10-2
1 CG |
112.2 | 0.96 | 1.79 | 2.26 | 0.92 | 24.8 | 6.4 | 0.0 |
| Hiroto
Saiki |
10-3 4 CG |
136.2 | 1.58 | 2.43 | 2.84 | 1.00 | 21.3 | 6.5 | 0.7 |
| Livan
Moinelo |
9-4
2 CG |
137.0 | 1.64 | 2.81 | 2.77 | 0.90 | 24.6 | 6.6 | 1.5 |
| Katsuki
Azuma |
9-2 2 CG |
140.0 | 1.74 | 2.75 | 2.96 | 0.98 | 18.0 | 3.5 | 1.3 |
| Shosei
Togo |
9-6 4 CG |
138.0 | 2.15 | 3.16 | 2.88 | 0.96 | 21.4 | 6.1 | 2.0 |
| Tomoyuki
Sugano |
11-2 1 CG |
115.2 | 1.87 | 2.63 | 2.79 | 0.97 | 18.5 | 3.5 | 1.1 |
| Takahisa
Hayakawa |
9-4 2 CG |
132.1 | 2.24 | 2.16 | 2.56 | 1.10 | 25.0 | 5.1 | 0.8 |
Voters also like to look at titles, records, and other counting stats more than rate stats. Hayakawa and Moinelo are within reach of the Ks title, trailing only Seibu Lions flamethrower Tatsuya Imai by 10 and 13 strikeouts, respectively. Meanwhile, Katsuki Azuma stands out as a soft-contact machine, consistently keeping his team in games with a perfect 100% quality start rate. Veteran Tomoyuki Sugano has had a renaissance and has a chance to win the third Sawamura of his career, a feat only accomplished by five other pitchers in NPB history. Other candidates with an outside shot include SoftBank Hawks righty Kohei Arihara and Hiroshima Carp teammates Masato Morishita and Hiroki Tokoda.
Prediction: Barring injury, Takahashi should win his first Sawamura. He’s only 31 frames away from the 143-inning minimum to qualify for titles and has been far and away the best pitcher in Japan this season. Hiroto Saiki has the next best odds, thanks to his combination of complete games and excellent run prevention. It’s a battle of the Hirotos! But don’t count out the others – a solid final stretch with key winning decisions could make the difference.
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WBN NPB: https://worldbaseball.com/league/japan/
Photo Credit: Hiroto Takahashi #28 of Team Japan pitches in the fifth inning. (Photo by Daniel Shirey/WBCI/MLB Photos via Getty Images)
