There are two clear favorites to win the National League Rookie of the Year Award: starting pitcher Paul Skenes of the Pittsburgh Pirates and outfielder Jackson Merrill of the San Diego Padres.
Skenes, just 22 years old, is having a tremendous rookie year, striking out 11.5 batters per nine innings. Skenes is the betting favorite to win the award, but the American League Rookie of the Year Award race is much tighter. All four players in contention for the award reside in the AL East, and two of them are battery mates.
Wilyer Abreu, OF, Boston Red Sox
While he has put together an unexpectedly good season for the Red Sox, it does not seem likely Abreu will be able to surpass the other three players on this list with less than a week of games remaining.
Abreu has pop, as evidenced by his 15 home runs and 33 doubles, tied for 24th in Major League Baseball this season. Fifty of his 100 hits this season have been for extra bases, including two triples. Despite his excellent gap-to-gap power, Abreu must work on his plate discipline. He ranks in the 18th percentile for whiff rate per Baseball Savant, which tracks a player’s tendency to swing and miss.
The Red Sox are in the process of what they hope will be a relatively short rebuild and will use Abreu as a building block to help them reach contender status in the AL East division. He is not arbitration-eligible until 2027 and will reach free agency for the first time in 2030.
Austin Wells, C, New York Yankees
Selected out of the University of Arizona in 2020, Wells received doubt from many that he would not pan out as an above-average defensive catcher at the MLB level. But something had to change after the Red Sox set a franchise record with nine stolen bases in one game against Wells’ teammate Jose Trevino on June 16 at Fenway Park.
Since then, Wells has stepped up as the Yankees’ starting catcher and has done nothing but impress. His .233 batting average may not turn heads, but his power and ability to frame pitches, a stat Savant ranks him in the 96th percentile, are huge for the Yankees. If the 25-year-old can improve upon a .524 OPS against lefties, he will be someone manager Aaron Boone hates to keep out of the lineup, even during the dog days of summer when he needs a day off.
Wells would be a favorite to win the AL Rookie of the Year Award any other year. However, his teammate and an outfielder from a division rival made themselves known this season.
Colton Cowser, OF, Baltimore Orioles
On Tuesday night, Cowser hit a home run so far into the right field bleachers at Yankee Stadium that it almost reached the Yankees-East 153rd Street train station. Well, not really, but he still drilled the solo shot 432 feet.
That kind of power has Cowser’s name in the AL Rookie of the Year Award discussions. The 24-year-old is part of a youth movement for the Orioles that includes several position players, including Gunnar Henderson, Jackson Holliday, Jordan Westburg, and Heston Kjerstad. With the new configurations of the left field wall at Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Cowser’s ability to hit different pitches to all parts of the field will help turn singles into doubles. The lefty batter is hitting .264 against fastballs in 2024 and .267 against breaking balls.
Cowser’s arm strength and range in the outfield make him an exceptional option in the corner outfield, and his role as an everyday player for one of the best teams in the AL should continue in the postseason and 2025. However, his spectacular season may not be enough to exceed a familiar foe.
Luis Gil, SP, New York Yankees
During spring training in Tampa, Florida, the Yankees were still determining whether Luis Gil, coming off Tommy John surgery that forced him to miss the entire 2023 season, would even break camp with the team.
The righty answered that question and then some, having his name in the discussion to start the All-Star Game for the AL at Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas. Gil ultimately did not make his first All-Star appearance. Nonetheless, he was the ace of the Yankees’ pitching staff while they waited for 2023 AL Cy Young Gerrit Cole to return to the rotation from nerve inflammation and edema in his throwing elbow.
Topping out in the upper 90s, Gil uses his fastball nearly 50 percent of the time to blow hitters away. His command is poor, leading all MLB pitchers with 76 walks. If Gil can find the strike zone with better success and not rely on batters chasing pitches, the righty from the Dominican Republic can become one of the best pitchers in the AL for years to come. He may add an AL Rookie of the Year Award to the back of his baseball card in 2025.
Photo: Colton Cowser of the Baltimore Orioles in action against the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium on July 6, 2023 in Bronx borough of New York City. The Orioles defeated the Yankees 14-1. (Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images)
