You simply can’t predict October baseball. This year’s Wild Card round was chock-full of upsets, with three teams getting upset on their home field and a fourth missing the Division Series for the first time since 2017. Let’s look at where the four eliminated squads go from here.
Houston Astros: Lost 2-0 to Detroit Tigers
The Astros run of seven straight ALCS appearances ended in shocking fashion, as they scored just three runs in a two-game sweep at the hands of the Detroit Tigers. It was the latest warning sign that the end of the Astros dynasty may be near. The club won just 89 games in 2024, their fewest in a full season since 2016, and it took a collapse by the Seattle Mariners and defending-champion Texas Rangers to win the AL West.
THE #TIGERS MARCH INTO HOUSTON AND SWEEP THE #ASTROS TO MOVE ON TO THE ALDS!! pic.twitter.com/NML7GFVVrr
— World Baseball Network (@WorldBaseball_) October 2, 2024
The decline in win total is a direct result of an offense beginning to feel the effects of losing key players like Carlos Correa and George Springer to free agency. Their 740 runs scored were 87 less than they tallied in 2023, as they struggled to find production outside of their core of Kyle Tucker, Alex Bregman, Yordan Alvarez, Jose Altuve, and Yanier Diaz.
On the pitching side, the Astros were able to offset the losses of Luis Garcia, Jose Urquidy, and Christian Javier to season-ending injuries thanks to the breakouts of Hunter Brown and Ronel Blanco. The bullpen stabilized after a rocky April, and with Yusei Kikuchi pitching to a 2.70 ERA after being acquired from the Blue Jays at the trade deadline, it looked like the ‘Stros were well-positioned for another deep October run.
That hope would be short-lived, as the Tigers would make short work of them and expose their biggest flaws in the process. An offense overly reliant on a handful of big hitters struggled to get the big hit, and when they finally took a 2-1 lead in the seventh inning of Game Two, their bullpen let them down. Closer Josh Hader, disappointed in the first year of a five-year/$95 million contract, served up a bases-clearing, three-run double to Andy Ibanez, giving the Tigers a 5-2 lead they would never relinquish.
While there is more than enough talent for the Astros to compete in an AL West filled with question marks, it’s clear that more roster shakeups are on the way. Yusei Kikuchi will likely depart after a terrific half-season, and future Hall-of-Famer Justin Verlander might join him after the worst season of his career. The most significant question mark, however, is undoubtedly Alex Bregman. The third baseman has been a stalwart of all seven ALCS teams, and while the Astros are adamant they want to retain him, their prior free-agent history suggests otherwise, as does general manager Dana Brown’s comments that they might need to be “creative” with payroll.
The loss of Bregman would be another core piece of the 2017 World Series Champion gone, and there are more issues on the horizon. Ace Framber Valdez and perennial All-Star Kyle Tucker are free agents after the 2025 season, and Jose Altuve is entering his age-35 season. So, while the championship window is not slammed shut, it is beginning to close slowly, and it will take aggressive moves by the front office to get back to World Series contention.
Baltimore Orioles: Lost 2-0 to Kansas City Royals
Two years, 192 regular season wins, 0 postseason wins. That’s the reality for the Baltimore Orioles, who were once again swept off their home field by the upstart Kansas City Royals. If last year was a bump in the road against a veteran Texas Rangers team that would go on to win the World Series, this series was a wake-up call. The Orioles were fully healthy, had a home-field advantage in both games, and got dominant performances from veteran starters Corbin Burnes and Zach Eflin. Everything was lined up for a date with the Yankees, but an offense that collapsed in the second half fell flat, scoring just one run in the two games.
The final out! The #Royals move on! pic.twitter.com/zypwaz6Tu7
— World Baseball Network (@WorldBaseball_) October 2, 2024
Though the Orioles still have a collection of young, exciting position players, it is evident that the honeymoon period is over. Their fans don’t just want to see competitive baseball; they want to see World Series championships. It’s something that looked well within the range of possibilities when the Birds were sitting in first place in July, but the second-half performance foreshadowed the team’s early October exit. Key players like Ryan Mountcastle, Ryan O’hearn, Grayson Rodriguez, Kyle Bradish, and Ramon Urias all went down with injuries and franchise cornerstone Adley Rutschman posted an abysmal .191/.274/.282 over his last 70 games. The Orioles offense became way too reliant on Gunnar Henderson and Anthony Santander. When those two players combined for just one hit in the series against the Royals, it was essentially the nail in the coffin.
All the aforementioned injured players will return for the Orioles in 2025, as will closer Felix Bautista, who missed all of 2024 while recovering from Tommy John surgery. The bigger question surrounds the status of their two marquee free agents: Corbin Burnes and Anthony Santander. Both players were integral to the Orioles’ postseason appearance this year, as Burnes won 15 games and posted a 2.92 ERA in his first season in orange, while Santander, the longest-tenured Oriole, finished second in the American League with 44 home runs. Each star is likely to command hefty contracts on the open market. While the Orioles may be more open to spending money under new owner David Rubenstein, whether they can compete with the big-market clubs remains to be seen.
With the Yankees loaded with stars, the Rays always maximizing their resources, and the Red Sox on the come-up, competing in the AL East next season will be as difficult as ever. The Orioles cannot afford to sit on their collection of young talent. Adding through free agency or trade is absolutely critical because if they don’t, they could be looking at their championship window closing before it even began.
Atlanta Braves: Lost 2-0 to San Diego Padres
From the first day of the season, it felt like a lost season for the Atlanta Braves. It all began with an Opening-Day oblique injury to All-Star catcher Sean Murphy, an injury that would hamper him for the rest of the season and set off a seemingly never-ending parade of injuries:
Very few teams could withstand that kind of carnage, and it’s a credit to manage Brian Snitker and the NL’s best pitching staff that they even got to the postseason. However, they were severely overmatched once they arrived in San Diego for their opening-round matchup against the Padres. The Padres quickly disposed of them in two games, marking the first time since 2017 that the Braves had not reached the NLDS.
12!! Strikeouts for Michael King #Padres!! pic.twitter.com/syjYnh8mii
— World Baseball Network (@WorldBaseball_) October 2, 2024
As simple and lazy as it may seem, the answer is to run it back. The Braves will go into next season with All-Stars at every position except left field (presuming they pick up Ozuna’s $16 million player option) and are just two years removed from setting the team record for slugging percentage. On the pitching side, they may lose Max Fried and Charlie Morton to free agency or retirement, but they will return Sale, A.J Smith-Schwellenbach, Reynaldo Lopez, and nearly every member of the league’s best bullpen. The Phillies and Mets pose legitimate threats, but it’s hard to argue that a healthy Atlanta Braves squad isn’t the team to beat in the NL East.
Milwaukee Brewers: Lost 2-1 to New York Mets
Speaking of the Mets, their shocking comeback victory in Game Three delivered another heartbreaking postseason defeat to the Milwaukee Brewers. The Brew Crew has made the postseason five times in the last six seasons but has only won one postseason series. From Trent Grisham overrunning the ball in Washington to Yasiel Puig‘s three-run dagger in Game 7 to getting swept at home by the Arizona Diamondbacks, there are a lot of painful moments to choose from, but Pete Alonso’s go-ahead, ninth-inning home run off closer Devin Williams may take the cake.
THE POLAR BEAR GIVES THE #METS THE LEAD pic.twitter.com/O7un7aP3Pv
— World Baseball Network (@WorldBaseball_) October 4, 2024
Looking at the bigger picture, however, it was a successful season for the Brewers. Picked by many to finish with a losing record after the departures of manager Craig Counsell and ace Corbin Burnes, the Brewers stunned the baseball world by running away with the NL Central. 20-year-old Jackson Chourio led a collection of talented young hitters, while Williams returned in July to anchor one of the league’s best bullpens.
While their ability to adapt and retool on the fly is commendable, the Brewers have two glaring needs this offseason. Milwaukee only has one key free agent, but the decision to bring back shortstop Wily Adames is a big one. The 29-year-old shortstop has become a leader in an ever-changing Brewers clubhouse, and his 112 home runs and elite defense have been invaluable to their playoff runs. The departure of Adames would be a significant loss on both sides of the ball.
The second issue that needs to be addressed is the starting rotation. The Brewers got a tremendous season from ace Freddy Peralta (postseason disaster notwithstanding), but they had only two starters make more than 20 starts: Journeyman Colin Rea and rookie Tobias Meyers. Former All-Star Brandon Woodruff will return in 2025 after missing most of 2023 and all of 2024 with a shoulder injury, but the Brewers could still use another dependable starter to complement Peralta.
With their ability to adapt and identify undervalued players, there should be no doubt whether the Brewers will continue to field competitive teams. For their fans, though, Wild-Card appearances are not enough for a franchise that hasn’t reached the World Series since 1982. To take the next step, the Brewers will need to continue to add veteran pieces to complement their emerging young core.
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WBN MLB: https://worldbaseball.com/league/mlb/
Photo Credit: Houston Astros players react after losing to the Detroit Tigers 5-2 during Game Two of the Wild Card Series at Minute Maid Park on October 02, 2024 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Tim Warner/Getty Images)
