The World Baseball Classic is underway, and Pool C could be headed for a three-way tie for second place between Australia, Chinese Taipei and Korea.
Japan has punched its ticket to the quarterfinals, but the second spot in Pool C is up for grabs. Australia is 2-1 with a game against Korea on Monday. Korea is 1-2, and Chinese Taipei has finished pool play at 2-2 after beating Korea on Saturday. If Korea beats Australia, there will be a three-way tie for second place.
If Australia, Chinese Taipei, and Korea are all 2-2, their head-to-head records will not matter. The next tie-breaking steps are as follows:
- The tied teams shall be ranked in the standings according to the lowest quotient of fewest runs allowed divided by the number of defensive outs recorded in the games in that round between the teams tied.
- The tied teams shall be ranked in the standings according to the lowest quotient of fewest earned runs allowed divided by the number of defensive outs recorded in the games in that round between the teams tied.
- The tied teams shall be ranked in the standings according to the highest batting average in games in that round between the teams tied.
- Standings shall be determined by the drawing of lots, conducted by WBCI.
Simply put, if Australia wins on Monday, they are through to the second round. However, a win for Korea does not guarantee that they advance as Australia would. The game score is very important in determining the tiebreaker.
Korea Qualification Scenarios
For Korea to qualify, they have to win, first and foremost. They must also win by scoring at least five runs and win by at least five runs. However, if Korea scores at least eight runs and Australia scores at least three runs, Chinese Taipei would get through.
If Australia scores three runs in any scenario, Korea is eliminated.
Australia Qualification Scenarios
If Australia wins, they are through. However, they can lose and still get through as long as they lose by less than five runs and Korea does not score at least eight runs in a win where Australia scores at least three runs. For example, if Korea wins 8-4, Australia would not get in, even though they lost by less than five runs, since Korea scored at least eight and Australia scored at least three runs.
Australia can lose as long as they score at least three runs and limit Korea to less than eight runs.
Chinese Taipei Qualification Scenarios
The only way Chinese Taipei can qualify is if Korea beats Australia in a game where Korea scores at least eight runs and Australia scores at least three runs.
One Interesting Note
Australia is the home team in the game against Korea on Monday. In any scenario, they will have the final say in who qualifies for the second round of the World Baseball Classic. If Australia had allowed eight runs going into the bottom of the ninth, Korea would be in a position to qualify. However, Australia could score three runs and put Chinese Taipei in the driver’s seat. Australia could also come back to win and claim the final spot for themselves.
Monday’s game has the potential to be one of the most intriguing games of the entire World Baseball Classic.
Photo: Australia’s manager Dave Nilsson, second right, visits the pitchers mound during the sixth inning of a World Baseball Classic game between Japan and Australia on Sunday, March 8, 2026 in Tokyo. (AP Photo/Eugene Hoshiko)
