Fernando Tatis Jr. hit a baseball 474 feet into the center-field concourse at Truist Park on Tuesday night — the longest home run anyone has hit in the major leagues this season. Two days later the Padres are 50-52, two and a half games out of a playoff spot, and their postseason odds have fallen off a cliff. Baseball is a cruel accounting.
Padres at Braves: How to Watch
- First pitch: 12:15 p.m. ET, Truist Park, Atlanta
- TV: SDPA (San Diego), BravesVsn (Atlanta)
- Probables: LHP Kyle Hart (0-2, 5.66) vs. LHP Chris Sale (10-6, 2.06)
- Records: San Diego 50-52, Atlanta 59-42
- Series: Atlanta leads 2-1. A Braves win takes the set; a Padres win splits it.
San Diego Padres’ Fernando Tatis Jr., right, celebrates with Kyle Hart after the team defeated the Arizona Diamondbacks in a baseball game Wednesday, July 8, 2026, in San Diego. (AP Photo/Derrick Tuskan)
The Wild Card Math Is Getting Ugly
Here’s where San Diego actually stands. The Padres are 50-52, third in the National League West, and 2.5 games behind Pittsburgh for the last wild card. Baseball Reference gives them an 8.6 percent chance of reaching the postseason — a number that has dropped nearly 24 percentage points in the last month. Their projected finish is 79-83.
Tuesday’s 8-3 win, the one with the Tatis bomb and two Manny Machado homers, moved them within two games. Wednesday’s 7-6 loss pushed them back out. That’s the season in two nights.
Atlanta’s math looks nothing like it. The Braves are 59-42, lead the National League East by four games, and are 90.8 percent to win the division and 98.3 percent to reach October. What they’re actually chasing now is a first-round bye, and there the news is less good: Los Angeles and Milwaukee are 90 and 84 percent to claim the two byes, leaving Atlanta at 23 percent.
Worth remembering how close this got. The Braves went 9-14 in June, watched a 10.5-game division lead shrink to 2.5, and have spent July rebuilding the cushion.
Lineups
Lineups subject to change.
| # | Padres | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fernando Tatis Jr. | RF |
| 2 | Luis Rengifo | LF |
| 3 | Manny Machado | 3B |
| 4 | Ty France | 1B |
| 5 | Xander Bogaerts | SS |
| 6 | Gavin Sheets | DH |
| 7 | Freddy Fermin | C |
| 8 | Jase Bowen | CF |
| 9 | Jake Cronenworth | 2B |
| # | Braves | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Drake Baldwin | C |
| 2 | Ozzie Albies | 2B |
| 3 | Matt Olson | 1B |
| 4 | Michael Harris II | CF |
| 5 | Mauricio Dubón | LF |
| 6 | Austin Riley | 3B |
| 7 | Dominic Smith | DH |
| 8 | Mike Yastrzemski | RF |
| 9 | Jim Jarvis | SS |
The Two Longest Home Runs of 2026 Are in This Ballpark
Atlanta Braves’ Drake Baldwin hits a single in the seventh inning of a baseball game against the San Diego Padres, Wednesday, July 22, 2026, in Atlanta. (AP Photo/Colin Hubbard)
Tatis leads off for San Diego. He hit the longest home run of the season Tuesday, 474 feet off Braves reliever JR Ritchie, who left a full-count curveball over the heart of the plate and was optioned to Triple-A the next day.
The record Tatis broke belonged to Drake Baldwin — 473 feet on June 16 against the Giants. Baldwin is leading off for Atlanta this afternoon.
One foot separates the two longest home runs anyone has hit in the major leagues this year, and both men are in the lineup at Truist Park at noon on a Thursday.
Kyle Hart Is Not a Starter
He’s the reason people are searching, and the line needs context: Hart has appeared in 25 games this season and started exactly one of them. The 33-year-old left-hander is a bulk reliever getting a spot assignment in a getaway-day matinee, not a rotation piece. The 0-2 record and 5.66 ERA reflect that role.
He draws Chris Sale, who at 10-6 with a 2.06 ERA has the best number on either roster, and who recorded the 2,700th strikeout of his career last Friday against Texas.
Atlanta Braves pitcher Chris Sale (51) celebrates after pitching 2,700 lifetime stikeouts in the fifth inning of a baseball game against the Texas Rangers, Friday, July 17, 2026, in Atlanta. (AP Photo/Mike Stewart)
Baseball Without Borders at Truist Park
Atlanta Braves’ Ozzie Albies reacts after striking out against the San Diego Padres during the eighth inning of a baseball game, Tuesday, July 21, 2026, in Atlanta. (AP Photo/Erik S. Lesser)
Between them these two organizations carry players born in ten countries and territories, and today’s lineup cards show a fraction of it.
San Diego starts Fernando Tatis Jr., from San Pedro de Macorís, the Dominican town that has sent more players to the major leagues per square mile than anywhere on earth. Xander Bogaerts is from Oranjestad, Aruba. Luis Rengifo and catcher Freddy Fermin are Venezuelan.
Atlanta answers with Ozzie Albies out of Willemstad, Curaçao, and Mauricio Dubón, one of the very few Hondurans ever to reach the majors.
What you won’t see is the depth behind them. The Braves are one of the most Venezuelan organizations in baseball — Ronald Acuña Jr., Martín Pérez, Sandy León, Carlos Carrasco, Robert Suarez — and Acuña is currently on a rehab assignment at Triple-A Gwinnett. Korean infielder Ha-Seong Kim is rehabbing there too. San Diego, meanwhile, has Korean rookie Sung-Mun Song on the bench in his first major league season, Japanese left-hander Yuki Matsui in the bullpen, and Dominican bat Miguel Andujar on the injured list with a fractured wrist.
Atlanta Braves’ Ronald Acuna Jr., right, celebrates after sliding into second base while Chicago White Sox’s Chase Meidroth, left, looks on during a baseball game in Chicago, Tuesday, June 9, 2026. (AP Photo/Paul Beaty)
The Deadline Is Twelve Days Away
San Diego Padres’ Manny Machado is greeted in the dugout after hitting a solo home run against the Atlanta Braves during the sixth inning of a baseball game, Tuesday, July 21, 2026, in Atlanta. (AP Photo/Erik S. Lesser)
Every Padres game from here doubles as a referendum. At 50-52 with single-digit playoff odds, San Diego is the sort of club that has to decide what it is, and closer Mason Miller — an All-Star and one of the hardest throwers alive — is the name that keeps coming up in deadline conversations.
There’s a small irony waiting in Atlanta’s bullpen: Robert Suarez, who used to close games in San Diego, now pitches for the Braves.
What to Watch
San Diego Padres’ Fernando Tatis Jr. reacts after hitting a 2-RBI triple in the ninth inning of a baseball game against the Atlanta Braves, Wednesday, July 22, 2026, in Atlanta. (AP Photo/Colin Hubbard)
Tatis tripled home two in the ninth inning Wednesday and the Padres still lost by a run. That’s the whole month in one at-bat: the best version of San Diego showing up too late and one swing short.
They get Sale at noon with a season on the line and a bulk reliever on the mound. First pitch, 12:15 p.m. ET.
Photo Credit: San Diego Padres’ Fernando Tatis Jr., right, celebrates with Kyle Hart after the team defeated the Arizona Diamondbacks in a baseball game Wednesday, July 8, 2026, in San Diego. (AP Photo/Derrick Tuskan)
