TOKYO, Japan – Last week, we looked at NPB starting pitchers with the potential to go to MLB in the coming years. This week, we’ll examine two relief pitchers and four hitters who may take their talents across the Pacific.
From Hideo Nomo to Yu Darvish to Masahiro Tanaka, there’s a long lineage of successful Japanese starters in MLB. Hitters haven’t inspired the same confidence, with Yoshi Tsutsugo and Shogo Akiyama being the most recent flops. But those players weren’t exactly considered slam dunks. Tsutsugo always struggled against high velocity, and Akiyama’s prime years from behind him. Moreover, they debuted in the difficult circumstances of the pandemic-shortened 2020 season.
Meanwhile, NPB superstars Seiya Suzuki and Masataka Yoshida, who had much stronger resumes in Japan, have had more success in their short time in the big leagues. The question is, do the following players have what it takes to follow that same path?
1B/3B Munetaka Murakami, Yakult Swallows (Current Age: 24)
Murakami’s future outlook isn’t as certain as it once was, but he’s still one of the most talented hitters in the world outside MLB. In 2022, he set the Japanese-born home run record with 56 en route to the Central League Triple Crown and MVP, posting a Bondsian 224 wRC+. His strikeout and whiff rates have skyrocketed in the past two seasons, as he’s in the 0th percentile in NPB for contact rate this year. Yet, his floor remains remarkably high, thanks to a low chase rate and immense raw power. He leads NPB in estimated average exit velocity this season, according to SIS Baseball’s Synthetic Statcast. He profiles like Max Muncy or Kyle Schwarber and will ultimately move off the hot corner, putting additional pressure on his bat to deliver.
1B/3B/OF Kazuma Okamoto, Yomiuri Giants (Current Age: 28)
Okamoto has arguably been the most consistent slugger in NPB over the past decade, with six straight 30+ home run seasons and seven straight 20+ home run seasons. The Yomiuri Giants captain has 227 homers with a .869 OPS and 140 wRC+ over ten NPB seasons, consistently ranking towards the top of the league in hard-hit rate. He clearly likes to swing for the fences, as he’s running a 55% flyball rate this year. The Giants famously have a no-posting policy, only breaking it for veteran Shun Yamaguchi in 2019 and Tomoyuki Sugano in 2020. Sugano is the nephew of former manager Tatsunori Hara’s manager, so the front office made an exception for him. The same can’t be said for Okamoto, who is one year away from reaching international free agent eligibility. The Giants must lock him up long-term or post him to maximize their financial return.
1B/2B Shugo Maki, DeNA BayStars (Current Age: 26)
Maki expressed MLB aspirations for the first time over the offseason. He’s played with a chip on his shoulder after falling to the second round of the 2020 NPB Draft, and he’s made every team that passed up on him regret it. The DeNA BayStars cleanup man has showcased remarkable consistency with a 147, 144, 150, and 150 wRC+, respectively, in his first four NPB seasons – good for a .294/.345/.512 slash line. He’s averaging 37 doubles and 25 home runs a year while managing a career strikeout rate of just 14.1%. He doesn’t walk much but has excellent bat-to-ball skills, with a 92% in-zone contact rate in 2024. His defense at second base is subpar as he’s built more like a first baseman, but he’s made improvements over the years to become a more well-rounded player. MLB teams will surely take an interest in Maki’s plus hit tool.
OF Chusei Mannami, Nippon-Ham Fighters (Current Age: 24)
Like Maki, Mannami revealed he dreams of playing in MLB over the winter. The half-Congolese outfielder has had no shortage of highlight-reel plays over the past few years with his big raw power and hose in right field. He arguably has the best arm for a Japanese position player since Ichiro, with 14 outfield assists and 27 defensive runs saved since the start of 2023, via SIS Baseball. At the plate, Mannami is prone to swings and misses but has gradually improved his strikeout rate, chase rate, and contact rate each year. So far in 2024, he’s slashing .247/.307/.423 with 17 long balls and a 119 wRC+. Also, his name directly translates to “Ten Thousand Waves.” Who wouldn’t want him on their team?
RHP Ryoji Kuribayashi, Hiroshima Carp (Current Age: 28)
Kuribayashi has locked down the 9th inning for Hiroshima since 2020, when he was named Central League Rookie of the Year. He’s notched 120 career saves with a 1.58 ERA, 2.15 FIP, and a 31.1 K%, relying on a low to mid-90s fastball, high-80s cutter, a mid-80s forkball, and a high-70s curveball. The split-finger is his most used pitch, and for good reason. Opponents are hitting .191 against it this year with no homers, and it has an elite 25.8% swinging strike rate. Apart from a brief period in 2023 where he lost the closer job (partially due to a lingering injury from the WBC), he’s been one of the most reliable high-leverage arms in recent NPB history and could make an impact in an MLB bullpen.
RHP Taisei, Yomiuri Giants (Current Age: 25)
Taisei Ota, who goes by just Taisei, has dealt with injuries the past few years but is the most dominant closer in NPB when healthy. He gets down low and throws 96-99 mph fastballs from a deceptive side-arm slot to ambush hitters. His best pitch is a filthy splitter with a staggering 38.7 swinging strike%. As if that weren’t enough, he also has a sweeping slider with an opponent average of just .100. This season, he has a 1.13 ERA and 0.97 FIP with a 33.3 K% and 6.3 BB%. There’s no doubt that Taisei could be a stable late-inning option in MLB right now. That said, Yomiuri has a no-posting policy, so don’t expect him to come stateside anytime soon. He’ll be eligible for international free agency around 2030.
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WBN NPB: https://worldbaseball.com/league/japan/
Photo Credit: Outfielder Chusei Mannami #66 of Japan warms up prior to the Asia Professional Baseball Championship game between Australia and Japan at Tokyo Dome on November 18, 2023 in Tokyo, Japan. (Photo by Gene Wang/Getty Images)
