10 Bold Predictions For The 2026 World Baseball Classic

The 2026 World Baseball Classic is just over two months away, and this edition is shaping up to be the biggest yet.

Japan is coming off its third World Baseball Classic title, winning an instant classic over the United States in 2023. Shohei Ohtani striking out Mike Trout to end the championship game was an iconic moment that helped fuel massive interest in the upcoming tournament.

For 2026, the United States has secured commitments from the vast majority of its top pitchers, addressing what has long been a major criticism of Team USA. After falling to Japan in the final, the Americans received commitments from 2025 AL Cy Young Award winner Tarik Skubal, NL Cy Young Award winner Paul Skenes, San Francisco Giants ace Logan Webb, Minnesota Twins starter Joe Ryan, New York Mets pitchers Nolan McLean and Clay Holmes, and left-hander Matthew Boyd.

No team in World Baseball Classic history has ever assembled a rotation with this level of talent and depth, underscoring how much the event has grown in stature among U.S. players.

With the tournament approaching, here are 10 predictions for the 2026 World Baseball Classic:

Canada finally advances out of the first round – Canada is the only team to appear in every World Baseball Classic without advancing past the opening round. It came close in 2006, 2013 and 2023, but losses to Mexico in 2006 and 2023 and the United States in 2013 proved costly.

In 2026, Canada will not be grouped with the United States and will play in Pool A in San Juan, a wide-open pool. With the Naylor brothers, Freddie Freeman (barring injury), Owen Caissie and a pitching staff featuring established major leaguers, Canada is well positioned to secure its first quarterfinal berth.

Cuba is eliminated in the first round for the first time – Cuba has advanced out of the first round in every previous WBC, but barely survived in 2023 thanks to the first five-way tiebreaker in tournament history. It went on to reach the semifinals before being overmatched by the United States.

This year’s pool presents Cuba with its toughest first-round test yet. After playing in Japan and Taiwan in each of the past three tournaments, Cuba will compete in San Juan for the first time since 2006. While the rotation will be led by NPB star Liván Moinelo, Cuba lacks depth behind him and does not have the same offensive star power as Canada and Puerto Rico, or even Panama. That leaves Cuba facing an uphill battle to advance.

Chinese Taipei reaches the quarterfinals – Chinese Taipei was one of the standout stories of the 2023 WBC. Yu Chang delivered two of the most memorable home runs in tournament history, and the team benefited from one of the strongest home-field advantages the event has seen.

Victories over Italy and the Netherlands put Chinese Taipei on the brink of advancing before a final-day loss to Cuba. Due to the tiebreaker formula, it was forced into requalification and narrowly secured its spot in Taipei City.

Chinese Taipei enters 2026 with the strongest roster it has ever assembled. Tigers prospect Hao-Yu Lee is expected to start at third base, Cubs prospect Jonathon Long has expressed interest and received permission to play, and newly signed SoftBank Hawks pitcher Jo-Hsi Hsu could slot in as the team’s No. 1 or No. 2 starter. The pitching staff also features significant minor league depth, including Diamondbacks prospect Yu-Min Lin. Lin started Chinese Taipei’s historic gold medal game matchup in the Premier12 and won their first gold.

Chinese Taipei will play in a pool with Japan, South Korea, Australia and Czechia. Only Japan has a deeper pitching staff, giving Chinese Taipei a realistic path out of the first round for the first time since hosting in 2013.

Puerto Rico reaches its third semifinal in four WBCs – Puerto Rico reached the WBC final in 2013 and 2017, falling to the Dominican Republic and the United States, respectively. It narrowly missed another semifinal berth in 2023 after a 5-4 loss to Mexico.

In 2026, Carlos Correa returns after missing the previous tournament, and Seth Lugo is also back. Puerto Rico hopes to add Riley Greene and George Springer to bolster the offense, with Francisco Lindor once again serving as the centerpiece. Playing pool games at home in San Juan, Puerto Rico is the favorite to finish atop Pool A.

Dominican Republic reaches the WBC final for the second time – The Dominican Republic has been the ultimate boom-or-bust team in WBC history. It went undefeated while winning its only title in 2013 and reached the semifinals in the inaugural tournament. It has also suffered stunning first-round exits, including losses to the Netherlands in 2009 and Puerto Rico in 2023.

This roster, however, has the potential to be the strongest the Dominican Republic has ever assembled. José Ramírez, Junior Caminero, Ketel Marte, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Juan Soto, Fernando Tatis Jr. and Sandy Alcántara headline a lineup capable of overwhelming any opponent. Even without elite starting pitching depth, the offensive firepower could carry the team back to the championship stage.

Japan and the United States meet in the semifinals – Japan and the United States have met three times in the semifinals or later, with the winner going on to claim the title each time. With two of the tournament’s strongest rosters, another pivotal matchup seems likely.

Japan will again feature Shohei Ohtani and, unlike in 2023, is expected to have Seiya Suzuki available. While the game could feel like a championship matchup, the United States would likely enter as the favorite.

Michael Arroyo breaks out for Colombia – Mariners prospect Michael Arroyo has committed to play for Colombia and is one of the country’s top position player prospects in years. Between High-A and Double-A last season, Arroyo posted an .834 OPS with 17 home runs and has continued to excel in winter ball.

Projected to start at second base, Arroyo will be a key contributor for a Colombian team looking to make a deeper run.

The Netherlands upsets Venezuela in pool play – Every WBC features a surprise result, and the Netherlands has a history of delivering them. Its victories over the Dominican Republic in 2009 remain among the biggest upsets in tournament history.

The Dutch will face the Dominican Republic, Venezuela, Israel and Nicaragua in Miami. With pitching prospects Antwone Kelly and Jurrangelo Cijntje likely anchoring the rotation and Ceddanne Rafaela and Xander Bogaerts leading the offense, the Netherlands could capitalize on questions surrounding Venezuela’s pitching availability to score a big upset.

United States defeats the Dominican Republic in the final – The United States and Dominican Republic have never met in a WBC semifinal or final, but 2026 could change that. With two star-studded lineups, the matchup would be a showcase of elite talent.

The Americans get the edge due to their pitching depth, with scenarios that could include Paul Skenes starting and Tarik Skubal closing and middle of the order that includes 3 players that hit 53+ home runs each in 2025. A final in Miami would produce one of the most electric atmospheres in WBC history.

Aaron Judge wins tournament MVP – Aaron Judge, one of the greatest right-handed hitters of his generation, will captain the United States in international baseball’s biggest event. While he has yet to win a World Series, the WBC offers him a chance to add a championship on the global stage — and a strong performance would give him a great shot at winning tournament MVP and add another accomplishment to his future hall of fame career.

Photo: Aaron Judge #99 of the New York Yankees hits a single against the Baltimore Orioles during the fifth inning at Yankee Stadium on September 25, 2024 in the Bronx borough of New York City. (Photo by Luke Hales/Getty Images)