The third piece in Detroit’s return for Tarik Skubal is the youngest, the furthest away, and the one with the widest range of outcomes.

Brady Scott Smith was born Jan. 27, 2005 in Knoxville and grew up in Bean Station, Tennessee. As a senior at Grainger High School he struck out 101 batters with a 0.87 ERA over 48.1 innings and hit .447 with five home runs. He was a two-time Tennessee Mr. Baseball finalist and a three-time All-State selection.

The Dodgers took him in the third round in 2023, 95th overall — the highest pick ever out of Grainger, passing Trey Cabbage, whom the Twins took in the fourth round in 2015. He was MLB.com’s No. 138 prospect in that class. He signed for $703,000 and gave up a Virginia Tech scholarship.

Then he had Tommy John surgery and missed all of 2024.

The pitch mix reordered itself

On draft night his listed best pitch was an upper-70s curveball. Three years and one elbow reconstruction later, MLB Pipeline grades his mid-80s changeup as the best thing he throws — a 60, with fade and sink, and the ability to land it for a strike or bury it for a chase.

The fastball sits 93-96 and touches 98 with carry. The upper-80s slider, low-90s cutter and the curveball that once defined him are all works in progress. Control grades 45.

He is 6-foot-2 and 170 pounds, which is the whole question. The stuff is real and the frame still needs strength behind it. He explodes off the mound and tunnels his pitches well from a three-quarters slot.

What he looks like now

On June 25 at Single-A Ontario, Smith struck out 11 across six scoreless innings — a career high.

He has struck out 113 in 74.1 innings this season across Ontario and High-A Great Lakes, a rate of 13.7 per nine, with a 4.36 ERA. He was named California League Pitcher of the Week on June 28 and promoted to Great Lakes in late July.

He has climbed the Dodgers’ internal board all summer, from No. 29 in late June to No. 17 at the time of the trade.

The bet

He got a late start on baseball every spring in high school because he played basketball through the winter. He turned 21 in January. He has thrown 95.1 professional innings in three years, and he needs Rule 5 protection after 2027.

Detroit did not trade a two-time Cy Young winner for what Brady Smith is. They traded him for what a 21-year-old with a plus changeup and a fastball that touches 98 might become.

Detroit’s other returns are outfielder Zyhir Hope and right-hander River Ryan.