Philadelphia can clinch the last National League wild card with one win, and the weather is the first question.
Sunday's game against Tampa Bay was moved up to 2:30 p.m. ET from 3:05 because of rain. As of publication it's on.
The forecast at Citizens Bank Park
Showers all afternoon. A 44 percent chance at 3 p.m., rising to 66 percent by 4, 73 percent by 5, and staying above 65 percent through midnight. Winds around 18 mph from the northeast, temperatures in the low 60s.
That's why they moved it up. Both sides have reason to finish: Philadelphia needs the result, and Atlanta needs to know who it's hosting Tuesday.
How to watch
Rays at Phillies
Sunday, Sept. 27 — 2:30 p.m. ET
Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia
TV: NBC Sports Philadelphia, Rays.TV in Tampa Bay
Streaming: MLB.TV, subject to local blackout
Radio: 94 WIP in Philadelphia, with Spanish on 106.1 Rumba. WDAE 95.7 FM and WQBN 1300 AM in Tampa Bay.
Probables: RHP Nick Martinez (15-5, 2.94) for Tampa Bay, RHP Zack Wheeler (13-5, 3.06) for Philadelphia.
Have the Phillies clinched?
Not yet. They're 87-74, one game ahead of Arizona with one to play.
Arizona holds the tiebreaker on division record, so a one-game lead is thinner than it looks.
Phillies win: they're in as the sixth seed and play Atlanta at Truist Park starting Tuesday.
Phillies lose, Arizona loses: Philadelphia still gets in.
Phillies lose, Arizona wins: the D-backs take the spot.
Arizona plays at San Diego at 3:10 p.m. ET, forty minutes after this one starts.
Philadelphia has lost four straight
The Phillies led Arizona by six and a half games on Sept. 1 and held the top wild card spot. San Diego and Chicago have both passed them since, and the D-backs — five games out of a playoff spot on Sept. 18 — have closed to one.
This is Philadelphia's fourth attempt to clinch. They started Aaron Nola on two days' rest Saturday trying to end it, and lost. Wheeler at least goes on regular rest.
Luis Arraez won't play. He sprained his left ankle Thursday and is out for the rest of the regular season, which also means watching the National League batting race from the bench. He's hitting .310, a point behind Arizona catcher Gabriel Moreno at .311.
Zack Wheeler
Wheeler is 36 and would have pitched for Team USA at the World Baseball Classic in March. Manager Mark DeRosa named him a primary target alongside Paul Skenes and Tarik Skubal before a blood clot and thoracic outlet decompression surgery ruled him out.
He's 13-5 with a 3.06 ERA and 188 strikeouts since coming back, with a 5.6 WAR that leads the Phillies.
In July he was left off the initial National League All-Star roster, then turned down a replacement invitation. "I'm not gonna be the fifth option," he said. His agent called the omission tone deaf.
Nick Martinez
Martinez is also 36, born in Miami, drafted in the 18th round out of Fordham in 2011. He's 15-5 with a 2.94 ERA in 177⅓ innings and has been the Rays' most reliable arm at stopping losing streaks this season.
He's pitched for Team USA at both the World Baseball Classic and the Olympics.
Tampa Bay is 98-63 and already the American League's top seed with a first-round bye and home field through the ALCS. They have nothing at stake today.
Who's hitting
Bryce Harper is 2-for-5 with a home run against Martinez. Kyle Schwarber is 2-for-5 with a homer. Trea Turner is 4-for-10. Bryson Stott is 3-for-5.
For Tampa Bay, Yandy Díaz is 4-for-8 with a home run against Wheeler. Junior Caminero and Cedric Mullins are also in the lineup.
A win-now roster with nothing behind it
Baseball America ranked the Phillies' farm system 29th of 30 in its midseason update.
What they have instead is age and experience. Harper is 33 and in his fifteenth season. Schwarber is 33, Turner 33, J.T. Realmuto 35, Nola 33, Wheeler 36.
The international presence is mostly pitching: José Alvarado from Venezuela, Jesús Luzardo born in Peru, Cristopher Sánchez and Jhoan Durán from the Dominican Republic, Adolis García from Cuba.
Justin Crawford is the exception. The 22-year-old center fielder has started 122 games as a rookie.
This is a roster with a closing window and not much coming. Today matters more than it would for most teams.
The other three games that decide things
Astros at Athletics, 3:05 p.m. ET. Houston and Texas are both 80-81 and only the AL West winner gets in. Houston holds the tiebreaker, so a win ends it.
Rangers at Twins, 3:10 p.m. ET. Texas needs a win plus a Houston loss.
D-backs at Padres, 3:10 p.m. ET. Arizona needs a win plus a Philadelphia loss.
The AL West champion plays the White Sox. The National League survivor plays Atlanta. Wild card series begin Tuesday, division series Oct. 3.
Forecast via Weather Underground. Lineups, probables and standings via MLB. Wheeler quote via ESPN.