10 Bold Predictions For the 2026 World Baseball Classic

We are just under a year away from the 2026 World Baseball Classic, and although they haven’t officially placed the qualifier teams in pools just yet, I’m going to go ahead and make 10 bold predictions for what I believe can happen next March.

South Korea finishes fourth in pool play for their worst finish ever – There’s been a lot of criticism in South Korea for how that team performed in the 2023 WBC. Most saw them as sure bets to make it out of pool play, but the game against Australia exposed what has plagued them for some time now. The lack of high-level pitching saw Australia torch their pen with two separate three-run homers to hold on for an 8-7 win and ultimately advance out of the group. Unfortunately, similar issues are on the horizon for South Korea in 2026. In a time when Japan’s pitching is reaching new heights, Korean pitching in the KBO still has a long way to go to catch up. While they’ll possess a good offense with Tommy Edman, Ha-Seong Kim, and Do-yeong Kim, the pitching will be a weakness. In a pool with powerhouse Japan and potentially Taiwan in Tokyo, Australia seeing a golden age of talent in their country with their best ever pitching staff, this could be a brutally tough road for South Korea to get out of the first round.

Canada makes their first ever semifinal – Canada, the most successful national baseball team to never advance out of the first round of a WBC, will have a roster in 2026 that can not only do that but take it a step further. With an offense that should feature the Naylor brothers, Freddie Freeman, Edouard Julien, Tyler O’Neill, and a bullpen with Cade Smith, Erik Sabrowski, they have the ingredients to be a scary team. If they can get Jameson Taillon/Nick Pivetta and co in the rotation, there’s no reason they can’t win big in 2026. I believe now is the time they will do it, even in a group with Puerto Rico/Cuba/Panamá.

Colombia will pull off a huge upset in pool play – Colombia, which had to re-qualify for this tournament after being upset by Great Britain in 2023, will boast its best ever collection of prospects in 2026 with Mariners prospect, Michael Arroyo, leading the way. They surprised many with a win over México in 2023 and did it without their expected ace, José Quintana. If healthy, Quintana should be available this time and with prospects like Didier Fuentes on the pitching staff, they have the goods to surprise some heavy favorites that may be looking past them.

Venezuela makes first-ever WBC final – Venezuela nearly made the semifinals in 2023 before falling to the U.S. thanks to Trea Turner’s dramatic go-ahead grand slam.

Their roster in 2026 should be even better. With Pablo López and Ranger Suárez anchoring the rotation and young stars like Jackson Chourio in the lineup and the Contreras brothers expected to play this time around, combined with stars like Ronald Acuña Jr., Venezuela has the ability to finally have their breakthrough performance on the global stage. Their pool play game against the Dominican Republic will be massive. The winner of that game has arguably the clearest path to the semifinals of any team in the entire tournament. I think Venezuela will finally break through in 2026.

Japan is the only team to advance out of pool day with an undefeated record – One of the themes of this tournament will be how competitive it will be. There will be virtually no easy games. The biggest gap between the top team and second best will be in Tokyo with Japan. They should go undefeated but the pools in North America have never been tighter. There will be upsets and I don’t think any team will go undefeated in those pools this time around.

No games end thanks to the early termination rule – Every tournament has featured games that ended early thanks to the mercy rule. With pools much stronger this time around and even teams like Czechia expected to be reinforced with Major League Baseball and minor league talent, there will not be a punching bag in any pool like there has been in past years when teams like China were clearly overmatched. This will lead to much closer games and a lot more drama with games not being decided by the fourth or fifth inning.

The Semifinals will feature only teams from the Americas – This may seem a little crazy, as Japan has made the semifinals of every WBC, but they’ve never had a tougher road to a semifinal. They’ll likely be playing Venezuela or the Dominican Republic in the quarterfinals. They’ve never had a game that tough before the semis. It will have the feel of a championship game in the quarterfinals. This time, I think the D.R. or Venezuela slay the powerhouse in Japan and we see the U.S., Venezuela, the Dominican Republic, and Canada all make the semifinals in a historic tournament.

Paul Skenes establishes himself as the world’s best pitcher on the global stage – One of the issues that has plagued the U.S. and the WBC in general has been the lack of marquee pitchers on the U.S. roster, and for all teams overall in the championship round. I think that changes in 2026 with Paul Skenes taking the role of the ace for the United States. I think he’ll have a huge tournament and establish himself as the game’s best pitcher and do it in the biggest moments on the global stage.

The United States becomes first team to make WBC title game in three straight tournaments – The road to making the championship game will never be tougher with the competition only getting stronger, but the United States should have their best roster to date with the chance to make a historic third straight title game.

The United States beats Venezuela to capture their second ever WBC championship – Okay, picking the United States isn’t the craziest idea as they’re one of the two or three favorites, but with their likely best ever roster, they’ll be even tougher to beat than they were in 2026. I think Venezuela produces their best ever performance but falls just short in a rematch of the 2023 quarterfinals and the U.S. takes home the World Baseball Classic for the second time in the greatest international baseball tournament to date.

____

WBN WBC: /news/category/wbc