NPB: Grading Every Central League Teams Offseason

As the NPB offseason draws to a close, teams are ramping up for spring training, with plenty of new faces in new places. Last year, the Yokohama Baystars surprised everyone by capturing the Japan Series title, even after losing two of their top pitchers, Shota Imanaga and Trevor Bauer. Meanwhile, the Yomiuri Giants, the team they defeated, responded by dominating the free-agent market, landing the league’s top closer and Samurai Japan’s primary catcher. With all the moves made, here’s a look at how each team has shaped up this offseason and what it could mean for their chances in 2025.

Chunichi Dragons: B+

Additions: IF Jason Vosler, LHP Kyle Muller, RHP Nash Walters, LHP Yumeto Kanemaru

Departures: RHP Raidel Martínez, OF Alex Dickerson, RHP Michael Feliz, LHP Shinnosuke Ogasawara, RHP Koji Fukutani, 1B Dayan Viciedo

The owner of NPB’s longest postseason drought, the Dragons finished another disappointing regular season in the Central League’s basement. The team responded by not being able to secure their superstar closer (Raidel Martínez), one of their best starters (Shinnosuke Ogasawara), and the best hitter Nagoya has seen in the last decade (Dayan Viciedo).

Instead, the Dragons started their offseason by landing the Draft’s biggest gem, Kansai University’s Yumeto Kanemaru. The consensus top pitcher in the 2024 NPB Draft, Kanemaru was so coveted that four teams (Dragons, Giants, Baystars, and Tigers) picked him with their first-round selection. These four teams went to a lottery, with Chunichi securing Kanemaru’s rights. The Kansai University standout finished his college career with 224.2 IP, 294 K, 39 BB, and a minuscule 0.88 ERA. Kanemaru immediately slots at the top of the Dragons rotation, who will hope he can form the league’s best 1-2 punch with reigning ERA champion Hiroto Takahashi. He should be considered the early favorite to win CL Rookie of The Year honours in 2025.

Regarding their foreign core, the Dragons brought in 31-year-old veteran utilityman Jason Vosler. Vosler spent the majority of 2024 in AAA with the Tacoma Rainers, hitting .303/.371/.573, finishing 2nd in the PCL in homers (31) and 4th in batting average. Vosler gives new manager Kazuki Inoue a viable option at multiple positions while undisputably becoming the team’s major (and only) long-ball threat from the lefty batter’s box.

Kyle Muller was once a top prospect who got dealt in the Sean Murphy trade to Atlanta. Muller found some success in Oakland as a reliever in 2024, though I believe he will be tested as a starter in Nagoya. The 6-foot-7 southpaw is a smart bet by the Dragons, with the high ceiling of a former top prospect and the high floor of a proven MLB reliever.

Chunichi also recently signed 27-year-old RHP Nash Walters; Walters spent 2024 with the Nationals AA and AAA affiliate, pitching 16 scoreless innings in AA but allowing 9 ER in 13.1 IP at AAA. The Dragons signed Walters after he threw on his Driveline Baseball pro day outing, sitting 95-97 and touching 98mph, though with spotty control. Even with Martínez’s departure, Walters will have to climb to the top of the Dragons bullpen.

Though the loss of Martínez and, to a lesser extent, Ogasawara is massive, I like what the Dragons did this offseason. If all goes well, this young roster could finally break the drought. Dragons fans deserve it.

Hanshin Tigers: C

Additions: IF Ramon Hernandez, RHP Jon Duplantier, RHP Nick Nelson

Departures: RHP Koyo Aoyagi, Sheldon Neuse, Johan Mieses

The Tigers finished the regular season as a comfortable 2nd place, and this offseason signals a continuance of these results. They are, for the most part, running it back with the same core that won them the 2023 Japan Series. The lineup actually benefits immensely from the departure of Sheldon Neuse, who was a clear negative at the plate (84wRC+) and on the field (-8.9 UZR). Mieses had similar issues on a smaller scale. The departure of sidearm veteran Koyo Aoyagi, who was at times in his career seen as the Tigers ace, has posted back-to-back mediocre seasons, and the 31-year old’s departure to America is similar to his former teammate, Shintaro Fujinami, where a change of scenery was necessary.

The Neuse/Mieses replacement is 28-year-old corner infielder Ramon Hernandez. The Santo Domingo native hit .313 with 22 HR for Acereros de Monclova in the summer before spending his winter in his hometown playing for Tigres Del Licey, whom he won back-to-back championships as the teams primary first baseman. It is hard to project Hernandez’s success in Japan, though it is worth noting that he consistently performs better than many peers who are/were on MLB rosters in the D.R. and Mexico, but NPB is by far the biggest challenge he has faced in his career.

The Tigers brought in two foreign pitchers to complement their stacked rotation and bullpen. First was former Diamondbacks top prospect Jon Duplantier, the 6-foot-4, 230lbs right-hander spent 2024 firstly with the Mets in AAA, then Duplantier dominated in a short Indy Ball stint, pitching 18 scoreless innings with 30 strikeouts. The Dodgers saw this and signed him to a minor league deal in August to fill their AAA rotation. Over six starts in OKC, Duplantier showed his best stuff as a pro, pitching to a 3.56 ERA with 41 K’s in just 30.1 innings. The 30-year-old’s velocity was also way up from his Dbacks days, now averaging 94.7 MPH, though his command was still an issue (5.04 BB/9 with OKC).

Nelson has spent the past three seasons in the Phillies organization, including spending the whole year with the big league club in 2022 and tossing 68.2 innings with a 4.85 ERA. Nelson’s calling card has been his high-octane fastball, which used to average 96.5 MPH over the past two years, but Nelson has been around 94 lately, and his strikeout stuff has regressed. The 29-year-old needed to adapt, so he added a… knuckleball to his arsenal. When he got called up by the Phillies in September, Nelson became the first Phillies pitcher to throw the pitch since at least 2008, when pitch-tracking data started. Nelson struggled in 2024, tossing 54.1 innings with a 6.13 ERA for the Iron Pigs (AAA).

I project both righties will act as swingmen, capable of both making a spot start or middle relief appearance. Both will have a hard time earning a top spot on one of the league’s best rotations/bullpen units that already feature standout foreign imports like Javy Guerra (1.55 ERA in 58 IP) and Jeremy Beasley (2.15 ERA in  13 starts).

Hiroshima Carp: D

Additions: IF Elehuris Montero, OF Sandro Fabian, RHP Johan Dominguez

Departures: RHP Aren Kuri, RHP Robert Corniel, RHP Thomas Hatch, IF Jake Scheiner

After a torrid start, the Carp let a seemingly guaranteed playoff spot slip away and finished 4th with a 68-70-5 record. The roster has been mired in mediocrity and lacks superstar talent since Seiya Suzuki left for Chicago. My early prognostic for the 2025 season was bearish, and these offseason moves did not change that fact.

One of the centerpieces of the Rockies ill-fated Nolan Arenado trade 3 years ago, Elehuris Montero was one of the Cardinals best prospects before being dealt to Colorado. In AAA, Montero has dominated, hitting .314 with a .981 OPS over 4 seasons, displaying serious power. Major league pitching exposed Montero’s biggest issues at the plate, which are the inability to hit off-speed pitching and having little control of the plate, striking out a bunch while barely walking (5.8 BB% to 30.7 K% in MLB). Another wrinkle to Montero is that when he found success at the MLB level, it was always in Coors Field. In Coors, the 26-year-old put up a respectable 92wRC+ but struggled with a 45wRC+ on away ballparks, and unfortunately for Montero, Mazda Zoom-Zoom Stadium is not 5000ft above sea level. Montero comes into Hiroshima as the front-runner for the 1st base job, as the Carp got the least amount of production out of any NPB team (74wRC+) from their big boppers. I do not like this signing based on all the evidence that Montero is just not a good fit for the breaking-ball-heavy Japanese way of baseball. He is still just 26 and possesses true plus traits like his bat speed/power, but he will have to adapt quickly to succeed in a league as tough as NPB.

The Carp chose to sign OF Sandro Fabian to a 3-year deal worth over $5M, the opposite of the typical “prove it” 1-year deals handed out to foreign rookies. The 26-year-old Dominican hitter had spent the past three seasons with the Texas Rangers organization before the Carp negotiated a buyout for Fabian. Fabian is in someways the anthithesis of Montero, as he didn’t obliterate AAA, but has shown a much more sustainable approach at the plate. It has been 5 years since Fabian posted a K% over 20% in any level of affiliated ball, and he showed he can put the bat on the ball on more than a fastball. Fabian also grades out as a positive in the outfield (especially in the corners), and you can see why the Carp gave Fabian a higher AAV and a longer-term commitment versus a player with much more MLB experience like Montero.

Dominguez, 29, spent the 2024 regular season with the White Sox AAA affiliate after recovering from Tommy John surgery, posting a 4.43 ERA over 111.2 innings pitched. In the winter, the 29-year-old Dominican hurler went back to his homeland to pitch for the Gigantes Del Cibao before the Carp signed the right-hander to a 3-year deal. Dominguez peripherals are pedestrian across the board, with a middlimg 1.70 K/BB ratio, while batters whiffed at just 11.8% of his offerings. It is concerning that the White Sox, who were arguably the worst modern MLB team of all time, did not give Dominguez a chance to make his MLB debut. The Carp should use the Dominican as a spot-starter/middle reliever.

The Carp clearly had a type this offseason, preferring to commit to longer-term deals, which is very uncommon when signing foreigners without previous NPB experience. The team also lost workhorse starter Aren Kuri, who signed with the Orix Buffaloes. Corniel, Hatch, and Scheiner were expendable and occupying foreign slots, and the team did well in bringing back standout reliever Taylor Hearn, who posted a 1.29 ERA over 35 innings in his first year in Hiroshima.

Tokyo Yakult Swallows: B

Additions: RHP Yuto Nakamura, RHP Mike Baumann RHP Peter Lambert, 3B Eigoro Mogi

Departures: RHP Cy Sneed, RHP Miguel Yajure, RHP José Espada, RHP Elvin Rodriguez

Since making back-to-back Japan Series appearances in 2021 and 2022, the Swallows have finished in 5th place over the last two seasons, and 2025 will likely be the last chance superstar slugger Munetaka Murakami has the chance to win another title in Tokyo, as the 25-year-old will be posted to MLB teams next offseason. The Swallows responded by letting go of their entire foreign pitching core, while bringing in a prized college pitching prospect, two former MLB pitchers and a intriguing bounce-back infielder.

A fireballing strikeout artist, Yuto Nakamura dominated college circuits, posting a 2.08 ERA with 292 Ks over 250 innings of work. He was so good that the senior national team, Samurai Japan, invited him to participate in the Japan vs. European All-Stars in March 2024. Surprisingly, Nakamura went uncontested in the draft, as the Swallows nabbed the top arm on their board. The 21-year-old is immediately in the mix to be the Swallows ace in 2025.

Baumann, 29, pitched for 5 MLB teams in 2024, being traded three times and claimed off waivers once. While in the majors, Baumann compiled a 4.95 ERA in 167.1 innings pitched with 147 strikeouts, mostly out of the bullpen. The 29-year-old’s fastball ranked among the top 80th percentile in velocity for the past 3 MLB seasons, averaging 96.7 MPH. What might be more impressive is how hard Baumann also throws his secondary pitches, using a power knuckle curve that gets up to 90 MPH and a slider that can touch 95. Baumann should be in line for a high-leverage role in a mediocre Swallows bullpen.

Lambert struggled to pitch in Coors Field like so many before him, posting a career 7.01 ERA at home. Though Meiji Jingu Stadium is considered the most hitter-friendly park in NPB, it does not compare to the madness of Coors. The 27-year-old former top prospect’s best pitch is his changeup, being the only pitch Lambert has held opponents to a sub .250 AVG for the past three years. He uses his fastball around 40% of the time, clocking in at 94.5 MPH. Over the past two seasons, Lambert has proved to at least be a replacement-level MLB pitcher, and I find it plausible that the right-hander can find success in a run environment that is the polar opposite of what he faced in Colorado. Lambert will likely slot into the rotation right away.

The now 30-year-old Mogi was once seen as one of the league’s best shortstops, with his first 6 years in the league being outstanding, compelling 21.1 WAR over that stretch and earning an All-Star nod in 2019, displaying a 5-tool skillset. Mogi’s downfall began in 2022, when he hit .228 and was diagnosed with COVID-19. Mogi lost his everyday role after a couple of managerial changes and stretches of poor health, though he was still a positive contributor when he got the chance to play. Mogi has a golden opportunity to become the team’s super utility infielder, as the Swallows have been desperate for playable depth in every infield position. Once Murakami departs for MLB, Mogi could be his replacement.

Though I am bullish on the pitching newcomers, it is hard to excuse cutting bait with Miguel Yajure and Elvin Rodríguez. Yajure was the teams 2nd most valuable pitcher by WAR and Rodríguez posted a 1.80 ERA out of the bullpen, and both are just 26 years old. Mogi offers much-needed depth to a top-heavy lineup. It remains to be seen if the Swallows did enough to get back into the postseason, but as of now, I do not think they can reclaim their Central League crown.

Yokohama DeNa Baystars: A+

Additions: RHP Trevor Bauer, IF Masaki Mimori

Subtractions: RHP J.B Wendelken, 1B Mike Ford, LHP Haruhiro Hamaguchi

The reigning champions managed to re-sign almost all of their elite foreign core while bringing back an old friend plus an interesting up-the-middle veteran.

The often-maligned Trevor Bauer is back in Yokohama. Now 34, Bauer spent the 2023 season with the Baystars, tossing 130.2 innings with a 2.76 ERA, earning an All-Star nod, and finishing the year as a Top 10-15 NPB starter , in my opinion. Unsurprisingly, Bauer did not have any interest from MLB teams in the off-season but surprisingly chose to play in Mexico for LMB’s Diablos Rojos, despite receiving significant interest from the Baystars and other NPB teams to return. Bauer rejoins a stacked rotation that lost LHP Shota Imanaga in the previous offseason but gained standout foreigners Andre Jackson and Anthony Kay, who will return for the 2025 season.

The Baystars acquired 25-year-old infielder Masaki Mimori via trade, sending LHP Haruhiro Hamaguchi to Fukuoka. Mimori has been lauded for his elite speed and has managed to be an above-average contributor with the bat for the past three seasons. Though he has almost exclusively played second and first base in his NPB career, I foresee the Baystars giving Mimori a shot to compete for the shortstop job, as Baystars shortstops posted a dysmal 65 wRC+ as a whole and could only muster a single homerun throughout the year.

The loss of J.B Wendelken is a blemish in a otherwise great offseason, the right-hander had spent the last two years as one of the Baystars top high-leverage arms, posting a 1.67 ERA across 86 innings. The team chose to keep RHP Rowan Wick, who was also solid in 2024 with a 2.60 ERA. Ford came up big in the playoffs, but did not have enough space in the lineup with the team bringing back MVP candidate Tyler Austin to play first base. Hamaguchi was a dependable veteran at the back-end of the rotation, but the Bauer signing made his departure to Softbank a less severe blow.

Yomiuri Giants: A

Additions: RHP Raidel Martínez, RHP Masahiro Tanaka, C Takuya Kai, OF Trey Cabbage

Subtractions: RHP Tomoyuki Sugano, OF Coco Montes

If you don’t like what the Dodgers are doing this offseason, I suggest you look away at what the Yomiuri Giants did across the pond. Despite finishing atop the Central League in the regular season, the Giants suffered a crushing loss against the underdog Baystars in the Tokyo Dome that sent this loaded roster packing.

The Giants answered by signing one of the best relievers in the world in 28-year old Cuban shutdown closer Raidel Martínez away from the Chunichi Dragons. The Giants won a fierce bidding war by offering Martínez a 4-year deal worth approximately 32.5 million dollars. In the past three years Martínez has allowed just 15 earned runs in 160.1 innings of pure dominance. The right-hander’s arsenal begins with the heater, which ranges from 95-99 MPH, ocasionally touching triple digits. Batters against Martínez splitter have a .122 batting average. His slider also improved in 2024. As it stands, Martínez forms a nearly unbeatable late-inning duo with Taisei Ota, with Martínez likely manning Yomiuri’s 9th inning.

The greatest player in the Rakuten Golden Eagles short history, author of a legendary 24-0 undefeated season in 2013 and a beloved figure in the Big Apple, it is safe to say that Masahiro Tanaka will have a plaque in the Japanese Baseball Hall of Fame once he is eligible. Tanaka left the Yankees in 2020 despite receiving MLB interest to return to Sendai and the 36-year old has progressively struggled more until he was kept out of NPB entirely in 2024 save for one bad start. Tanaka is just 3 wins away from reaching 200 wins in a MLB/NPB mound.

As if one wasn’t enough, the Giants now have 2/3 of Samurai Japan’s catchers in the 2023 WBC, with Takumi Ohshiro and now Takuya Kai. A 6-time Japan Series champion and a 3x All-Star, Kai had seen his production sharply decline at the plate, with the Oita native consistently hovering around the Mendoza line. The 32-year old enjoyed a moderate bounceback in 2024, hitting .256/.317/.372 for a 112wRC+  while hitting the ball as hard as he did in his prime. Kai also worked on his framing and he is always going to get a few extra base hits, but the Giants brought him in for his leadership and championship pedigree. This leaves Ohshiro’s future with the team in question despite the backstop being one of the league’s most valuable players in 2023.

A 2015 4th-round pick by the Twins in 2015, it took 8 years until Cabbage made his MLB debut with the Angels. The 27-year old rocketed through the upper minors, posting a 30-30-.300 (known in Japan as the Triple Three) campaign with AAA’s Salt Lake Bees in 2023. This prompted the Astros to give him another shot at the bigs but Cabbage struck out too way too much to be effective. As expected, Cabbage’s biggest kryptonite is breaking balls, as the lefty hitter whiffed at 69.4%(!) of breaking pitches in the majors. The upside is tremendous here, as Cabbage can absolutely barrel a fastball and he has good wheels plus a strong arm in the outfield. But if he can’t hit the benders in Japan, it won’t matter.

The loss of all-time great SP Tomoyuki Sugano, the reigning Central League MVP, would be a huge blow to most rotations, but Yomiuri has plenty of exciting arms to replace the veteran. Swapping Coco Montes for Cabbage is a gamble on upside in a crowded outfield where LF and CF are up for grabs.

The Giants are my favorite to take the Central League pennant in 2025.