You simply can’t predict October baseball. This year’s Wild Card round was chock-full of upsets, with three teams getting upset on their home field and a fourth missing the Division Series for the first time since 2017. Let’s look at where the four eliminated squads go from here.
Houston Astros: Lost 2-0 to Detroit Tigers
- Key Free Agents: Justin Verlander, Alex Bregman, Yusei Kikuchi, Kendall Graveman
The Astros run of seven straight ALCS appearances ended in shocking fashion, as they scored just three runs in a two-game sweep at the hands of the Detroit Tigers. It was the latest warning sign that the end of the Astros dynasty may be near. The club won just 89 games in 2024, their fewest in a full season since 2016, and it took a collapse by the Seattle Mariners and defending-champion Texas Rangers to win the AL West.
THE #TIGERS MARCH INTO HOUSTON AND SWEEP THE #ASTROS TO MOVE ON TO THE ALDS!! pic.twitter.com/NML7GFVVrr
— World Baseball Network (@WorldBaseball_) October 2, 2024
The decline in win total is a direct result of an offense beginning to feel the effects of losing key players like Carlos Correa and George Springer to free agency. Their 740 runs scored were 87 less than they tallied in 2023, as they struggled to find production outside of their core of Kyle Tucker, Alex Bregman, Yordan Alvarez, Jose Altuve, and Yanier Diaz.
On the pitching side, the Astros were able to offset the losses of Luis Garcia, Jose Urquidy, and Christian Javier to season-ending injuries thanks to the breakouts of Hunter Brown and Ronel Blanco. The bullpen stabilized after a rocky April, and with Yusei Kikuchi pitching to a 2.70 ERA after being acquired from the Blue Jays at the trade deadline, it looked like the ‘Stros were well-positioned for another deep October run.
That hope would be short-lived, as the Tigers would make short work of them and expose their biggest flaws in the process. An offense overly reliant on a handful of big hitters struggled to get the big hit, and when they finally took a 2-1 lead in the seventh inning of Game Two, their bullpen let them down. Closer Josh Hader, disappointed in the first year of a five-year/$95 million contract, served up a bases-clearing, three-run double to Andy Ibanez, giving the Tigers a 5-2 lead they would never relinquish.
While there is more than enough talent for the Astros to compete in an AL West filled with question marks, it’s clear that more roster shakeups are on the way. Yusei Kikuchi will likely depart after a terrific half-season, and future Hall-of-Famer Justin Verlander might join him after the worst season of his career. The most significant question mark, however, is undoubtedly Alex Bregman. The third baseman has been a stalwart of all seven ALCS teams, and while the Astros are adamant they want to retain him, their prior free-agent history suggests otherwise, as does general manager Dana Brown’s comments that they might need to be “creative” with payroll.
The loss of Bregman would be another core piece of the 2017 World Series Champion gone, and there are more issues on the horizon. Ace Framber Valdez and perennial All-Star Kyle Tucker are free agents after the 2025 season, and Jose Altuve is entering his age-35 season. So, while the championship window is not slammed shut, it is beginning to close slowly, and it will take aggressive moves by the front office to get back to World Series contention.
Baltimore Orioles: Lost 2-0 to Kansas City Royals
- Key Free Agents: Corbin Burnes, Anthony Santander, James McCann, John Means, Seranthony Dominguez (Club Option), Ryan O’hearn (Club Option)
Two years, 192 regular season wins, 0 postseason wins. That’s the reality for the Baltimore Orioles, who were once again swept off their home field by the upstart Kansas City Royals. If last year was a bump in the road against a veteran Texas Rangers team that would go on to win the World Series, this series was a wake-up call. The Orioles were fully healthy, had a home-field advantage in both games, and got dominant performances from veteran starters Corbin Burnes and Zach Eflin. Everything was lined up for a date with the Yankees, but an offense that collapsed in the second half fell flat, scoring just one run in the two games.
The final out! The #Royals move on! pic.twitter.com/zypwaz6Tu7
— World Baseball Network (@WorldBaseball_) October 2, 2024
Though the Orioles still have a collection of young, exciting position players, it is evident that the honeymoon period is over. Their fans don’t just want to see competitive baseball; they want to see World Series championships. It’s something that looked well within the range of possibilities when the Birds were sitting in first place in July, but the second-half performance foreshadowed the team’s early October exit. Key players like Ryan Mountcastle, Ryan O’hearn, Grayson Rodriguez, Kyle Bradish, and Ramon Urias all went down with injuries and franchise cornerstone Adley Rutschman posted an abysmal .191/.274/.282 over his last 70 games. The Orioles offense became way too reliant on Gunnar Henderson and Anthony Santander. When those two players combined for just one hit in the series against the Royals, it was essentially the nail in the coffin.
All the aforementioned injured players will return for the Orioles in 2025, as will closer Felix Bautista, who missed all of 2024 while recovering from Tommy John surgery. The bigger question surrounds the status of their two marquee free agents: Corbin Burnes and Anthony Santander. Both players were integral to the Orioles’ postseason appearance this year, as Burnes won 15 games and posted a 2.92 ERA in his first season in orange, while Santander, the longest-tenured Oriole, finished second in the American League with 44 home runs. Each star is likely to command hefty contracts on the open market. While the Orioles may be more open to spending money under new owner David Rubenstein, whether they can compete with the big-market clubs remains to be seen.
